Working papers 2011 (including abstracts)

papers on grey background are part of the Special Edition of Applied Mathematics




Working Paper no.1/11


Delta and gamma hedging of mortality and interest rate risk

E. Luciano, L. Regis, E. Vigna

This paper studies the hedging problem of life insurance policies, when the mortality and interest rates are stochastic. We focus primarily on stochastic mortality. We represent death arrival as the first jump time of a doubly stochastic process, i.e. a jump process with stochastic intensity. We propose a Delta-Gamma Hedging technique for mortality risk in this context. The risk factor against which to hedge is the difference between the actual mortality intensity in the future and its "forecast" today, the instantaneous forward intensity. We specialize the hedging technique first to the case in which survival intensities are ane, then to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Feller processes, providing actuarial justifications for this restriction. We show that, without imposing no arbitrage, we can get equivalent probability measures under which the HJM condition for no arbitrage is satisfied. Last, we extend our results to the presence of both interest rate and mortality risk, when the forward interest rate follows a constant-parameter Hull and White process. We provide a UK calibrated example of Delta and Gamma Hedging of both mortality and interest rate risk.

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Working Paper no. 2/11

Property rights and externalities: the uneasy case of knowledge

G. B. Ramello

Drawing from Coase’s methodological lesson, this article discusses the specific case of knowledge, which was for a long time chiefly governed by exchange mechanisms lying outside the market, and has only recently been brought into the market. Its recent, heavy “colonization” by the property paradigm has progressively elicited criticism from commentators who, for various reasons, believe that the market can play only a limited role in pursuing efficiency in the knowledge domain. The article agrees with the enounced thesis and tries to provide an explanation of it that relates to the fact that in specific circumstances property-rights can produce distinct market failures that affect the social cost and can consequently prevent attainment of social welfare.
In particular, the arguments set forth here concern three distinct externalities that arise when enforcing a property rights system over knowledge. First, the existence of a property right may itself alter individual preferences and social norms, thus causing specific changes in individuals' behaviour. Second, the idiosyncratic nature of knowledge, as a collective and inherently indivisible entity, means that its full propertization can be expected to produce significant harm. Third, property rights can cause endogenous drifts in the market structure arising from the exclusive power granted to the right holder: though generally intended as a necessary mechanism for extracting a price from the consumer, in the knowledge domain property rights can become a device for extracting rents from the market.

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Working Paper no. 3/11

GDP as a measure of economic welfare

M. Syrquin

Ever since the early days of National Income accounting we can observe periodic surges of demands to fix the measurement of GDP to better reflect progress, welfare or even happiness. In recent years even Presidents and Prime Ministers in Europe have joined the chorus of the discontent. In this paper I argue that the critique is mostly misguided. Welfare measurement has not been the objective of the GDP accounts especially since the late 1940s when National Accounts became a vehicle for applying Keynesian economics for, primarily, short run stabilization. I also argue that the search for a unique index of welfare, well-being, or happiness
is a chimera.

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Working Paper no. 4/11

Organizational paths of commercializing patented inventions: the effects of transaction costs, firm capabilities, and collaborative ties

T. Jung, J. P. Walsh

This study examines the factors affecting modes of commercializing patented inventions using a novel dataset based on a survey of U.S. inventors. We find that technological uncertainty and possessing complementary assets raise the propensity for internal commercialization. We find that R&D collaboration with firms in a horizontal relationship is likely to increase the propensity to license the invention. In addition, the paper shows that macro-level environment conditions that affect exchange conditions, such as technology familiarity, influence the effects of capabilities on governance choice.

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Working Paper no. 5/11

"Are genetically modified foods bad for my health?"
Individuals' valutation and the choice among different information sources

S. Beraldo, S. Ottone, G. Turati

We investigate the role of information on consumers’ valuation for food products containing genetically modified organisms (GMOs), using data from a specifically designed survey. We provide three main results. First, we show that introducing mandatory labels to identify whether or not a food product contains GMOs, significantly reduces consumers’ valuation. Second, adding to the label additional information on GMOs significantly affects valuation. Third, no matter the sign of the information previously received, consumers are more willing to trust General Practitioners (GPs), the information source they prefer most. Overall, these results indicate that the crucial issue is not the presence of the label per se, but the availability of the necessary information to make good use of the label content to assess potential health risks deriving from GM foods. In particular, our findings suggest that this can be achieved by properly informing (and convincing) GPs and other health professionals that risks for human health are minimal.

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Working Paper no. 6/11

The simple economics of class action: private provision of club and public goods

A. Cassone, G. B. Ramello

This article uses economic categories to show how the reorganisation of civil procedure in the case of class action is not merely
aimed at providing a more efficient litigation technology, as hierarchies (and company law) might do for other productive activities, but that it also serves to create a well defined economic organization ultimately aimed at producing a set of goods, first and foremost among which are justice and efficiency.
Class action has the potential to recreate, in the judicial domain, the same effects that individual interests and motivations, governed by the perfect competition paradigm, bring to the market. Moreover, through economic analysis it is possible to rediscover not only the productive function of this legal machinery, but also that partial compensation of victims and large profits for the class counsel, far from being a side-effect, are actually a necessary condition for reallocation of the costs and risks associated with the legal action.

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Working Paper no. 7/11

On firm growth and innovation. Some new empirical perspectives using French CIS (1992-2004)

A. Colombelli, N. Haned, C. Le Bas

In the paper we wish to examine if the firms that innovate know a higher growth than the firm that do not. We use diverse waves of CIS for the French industries over the period 1992-2004 and carry out different models and new econometric methods (quantile regression). Our main findings are that innovative firms produce more growth than non innovative firms. The estimates show that the results are robust to the different types of models that we have implemented. Process innovators are more productive in terms of growth than product innovators when OLS and Random effects models are used. The reverse is true for Fix effect model and quantile regression. In the three growth equations estimated by GMM the coefficients related to innovation product are always higher. Our study does not give definitive results with respect to the magnitude of the effects of the type of innovation on firm growth.

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Working Paper no. 8/11

A comparative assessment of water markets: insights from the Murray-Darling basin of Australia and the Western US

R.Q. Grafton, G.D. Libecap, E.C. Edwards, R.J.O'Brien, C. Landry

Water markets in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) and the US west are compared in terms of their ability to allocate scarce water resources. The study finds that the gains from trade in the MDB are worth hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Total market turnover in water rights exceeds $2 billion per year while the volume of trade exceeds over 20% of surface water extractions. In Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, and Texas, trades of committed water annually range between 5% and 15% of total state freshwater diversions with over $4.3 billion (2008 $) spent or committed by urban buyers between 1987 and 2008. The two-market comparison suggests that policy attention should be directed towards ways to promote water trade while simultaneously mitigating the legitimate thirdparty concerns about how and where water is used, especially conflicts between consumptive and in situ uses of water. The study finds that institutional innovation is feasible in both countries and that further understanding about the size, duration, and distribution of third-party effects from water trade, and how these effects might be regulated, can improve water markets to better manage water scarcity.

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Working Paper no. 9/11

Multinational firms in the world wine industry: an investigation into the determinants of most-favoured locations

J.F. Outreville, M. Hanni

The objective of the paper is to identify some of the determinants of foreign investment of the largest multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating in the wine industry. The list of the largest MNEs has been compiled using financial databases and company websites.
The results of this study have some important implications. They indicate that location-specific advantages of host countries i.e. do provide an explication of the internationalization of firms in some preferred countries rather than others.

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Working Paper no. 10/11

Maintaining taxes at the centre despite decentralization: interactions with national reforms

G. Brosio, J. P. Jiménez

Although fiscal (de)centralization literature explains easily the centralization of taxes on the basis of a superior tax administration capacity, it finds more difficult to argue why in federal and decentralized systems subnational governments are ready to accept the demise of their taxing powers. This paper aims to contribute to the debate by analyzing the conditions under in which sub-national governments are willing to cede their taxing power to a central authority. A simple bargaining model is used to illustrate the choices available to both the central (federal) government and the sub-national governments (regions), where the main contribution lies in the introduction of the expenditure side of the budget and of its relevance for solving the commitment issue. We conclude that tax centralization will take place – transfers will prevail over sub-national taxes – if substantial efficiency gains from the centralized administration of taxes are expected. To support this conclusion, the paper presents evidence from decentralization processes in Argentina, Canada and Italy.

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Working Paper no. 11/11

Power and entrepreneurship in German political economy: the cases of Werner Sombart and Friedrich von Wieser

G. Campagnolo, C. Vivel

In the present paper we are going to examine texts by Werner Sombart and Friedrich von Wieser on entrepreneurship and the capitalist economy using an interdisciplinary approach focused on economics but also dealing with economic sociology and political philosophy. We believe that both authors have been largely neglected, thus overlooking the main source of the theory of the entrepreneur in debates held in German language and between Germany and Austria around the 1900s. Without excluding earlier major references (such as Jean-Baptiste Say, the first French economist at the Collège de France,) we shall demonstrate that for both our authors the entrepreneur is the keystone of a renewed understanding of capitalism and the modern economy of their times. They stressed the origins, functions and roles of the entrepreneur and showed that there cannot exist only a single entrepreneurial form but there must necessarily be several ones, depending on the context. Two lessons can be drawn from their texts: 1/ the entrepreneur’s action needs to be reinstalled in the social, economic and institutional context; 2/ the results of the actions of entrepreneurs are inherently difficult to predict because the action responds to institutional changes and is the outcome of such changes.

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Working Paper no. 12/11

The relationship between insurance growth and economic development: 80 empirical papers for a review of the literature

J.F. Outreville

The objective is to examine the determinants of the relationship between insurance growth and economic development. This paper contributes to this body of research by providing an extensive literature review of empirical studies that have looked at both sides of the relationship, i.e. the demand side (economic growth is an explanatory variable among other factors that affect the demand) and the development side (insurance is a determinant of growth).

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Working Paper no. 13/11

Do institutions and social cohesion enhance the effectiveness of aid? New evidence from Africa

M. Baliamoune-Lutz

Using the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel GMM estimator, this paper explores the effects of aid, institutions, and social cohesion on per-capita income growth in 34 African countries, focusing in particular on the interplay of aid and institutions and the interplay of aid and social cohesion. The empirical results indicate that social cohesion enhances the growth effects of aid but there is a threshold effect, suggesting that aid becomes effective in enhancing growth in countries with higher social cohesion. Surprisingly, the results show that beyond a certain level of improvements in institutional quality, institutions (political rights and civil liberties) reduce the effectiveness of aid. We discuss the implications of these results.

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Working Paper no. 14/11

Is there a health-care problem in Western societies?

E. Colombatto

The recent crisis in public finance that has characterized most Western countries has stoked renewed interest in the possibility of reducing government expenditure by reforming the health-care system. After reviewing the origins of today’s state intervention in this field, the present paper argues that policy-makers will certainly strive to contain health-care of expenditure. Yet, it also claims that unless the ideological context that has favoured the birth and development of the current systems undergoes significant transformation, reform in this area is bound to remain elusive. In particular, the myth of social justice and the concept of human dignity need to be reassessed. The outcome of this process will determine to which extent state intervention in the health sector will lose its rent-seeking connotations, while increasing attention will underscore critical phenomena to which the principle of individual responsibility offers only limited solutions.

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Working Paper no. 15/11

Simultaneous determination of market value and risk premium in the valuation of firms

S. Lutz

Valuing a firm using the discounted cash flow method (DCF) requires the joint determination of the market value of its equity (MVE) together with the equity risk premium (ERP) the firm should earn, since the latter is part of the discount rate used in the calculation of the MVE. This paper presents a theoretical derivation of how MVE and ERP can be calculated simultaneously under fairly general conditions. Besides firm data on free cash flow to equity the only external data needed are the risk-free rate of interest and a parameter indicating the required market risk premium per return volatility.

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Working Paper no. 16/11

Indirect copyright infringement liability for ISPs and the economics of contracts under asymmetric information

R. Watt

Under current copyright law, Internet Service Providers (ISPs) can be found liable for the traffic on the websites that they host. While the ISPs themselves are not undertaking acts that infringe copyright, indirect liability asserts that they either contribute to, or encourage in some way, infringing activities, and thus they are liable to claims of indirect involvement by the affected copyright holders. The present paper explores indirect liability in a standard principal-agent setting, where both moral hazard (the act of monitoring) and adverse selection (differential costs of monitoring over ISPs) are present. The model considers the kinds of contracts that could be signed between the copyright holders (acting through a collective) and the ISPs (acting individually). The self-selecting, incentive compatible equilibrium is found for the feasible scenarios that may present themselves.
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Working Paper no. 17/11

A note on greater downside risk aversion

R. Watt

This paper characterizes downside risk aversion in a simple and intuitive manner. It is shown that using this characterization one can simplify considerably a theorem by Jindapon (2010) relating to greater downside risk aversion as measured by the prudence probability premium. The comparative statics of downside risk aversion in risk-free wealth are also considered.
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Working Paper no. 18/11

Life is now!
Time discounting and crime: evidence from the Italian regions (2002-2007)

S. Beraldo, R. Caruso, G. Turati

This paper tests the relationship between time preferences and crime rates as posited by Davis (1988), whose theoretical analysis suggests that individuals’ attitude towards the future significantly affect their propensity to commit crime. Our empirical analysis is based on a panel of Italian regions for the period 2002-2007. Various proxies for time preferences are considered: the consumer credit share out of the total amount of loans to households, the share of obese individuals out of the total population, and the rate of marriages out of the total population. In line with the theoretical prediction, our empirical analysis confirms that where people are more impatient and discount the future more heavily, property and violent crimes are higher. Results are robust to a number of alternative specifications including covariates drawn from the literature on the determinants of crime.
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Working Paper no. 19/11

Una lezione in edicola
La collaborazione di Pasquale
Jannaccone con "La Nuova Stampa"

S. Adamo

Il presente saggio contiene una disamina e valutazione dell’attività di Pasquale Jannaccone come opinion maker mediante un’analisi degli editoriali pubblicati su “La Nuova Stampa”. Dopo un breve profilo scientifico dell’autore, vengono affrontati tre elementi relativi al suo lavoro di opinionista: lo stile didascalico dei suoi articoli; il sostegno alla politica monetaria di Luigi Einaudi durante l’impegno politico di quest’ultimo; la sua difesa dei principi liberisti e liberali in un dibattito caratterizzato da una marcata ostilità verso la tradizione del liberalismo anglosassone. Si sostiene inoltre che l’elemento di maggiore interesse dell’opera di Jannaccone come opinion maker consista nella sua caratteristica consapevolezza delle difficoltà nascoste delle teorie economiche, tale da fargli concepire la sua attività giornalistica nel senso di uno strumento di educazione piuttosto che di mera persuasione.
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Working Paper no. 20/11

Intra-organizational integration and innovation: organizational structure, environmental contingency and R&D performance

Y-N. Lee, J. P. Walsh

It is widely thought that intra-firm integration has a positive effect on organizational performance, especially in environments characterized by complex and uncertain information. However, counter arguments suggest that integration may limit flexibility and thereby reduce performance in the face of uncertainty. Research and development activities of a firm are especially likely to face complex and uncertain information environments. Following prior work in contingency theory, this paper analyzes the effects of intra-organizational integration on manufacturing firms’ innovative performance. Based on a survey of R&D units in US manufacturing firms and patent data from the NBER patent database, we examine the relation between mechanisms for linking R&D to other units of the firm and the relative innovativeness of the firm. Furthermore, we argue that the impact of integration may vary by the importance of secrecy in protecting firms’ innovation advantages. We find that intra-firm integration is associated with higher self-reported innovativeness and more patents. We also find some evidence that this effect is moderated by the appropriability regime the firm faces, with the benefits of cross-functional integration being weaker in industries where secrecy is especially important. These results both support and develop the contingency model of organizational performance.
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Working Paper no.21/11


Natural delta gamma hedging of longevity and interest rate risk

E. Luciano, L. Regis, E. Vigna

The paper presents closed-form Delta and Gamma hedges for annuities and death assurances, in the presence of both longevity and interest-rate risk. Longevity risk is modelled through an extension of the classical Gompertz law, while interest rate risk is modelled via an Hull-and-White process. We theoretically provide natural hedging strategies, considering also contracts written on di erent generations. We provide a UK-population and bond-market calibrated example. We compute longevity exposures and explicitly calculate Delta-Gamma hedges. Re-insurance is needed in order to set-up portfolios which are Delta-Gamma neutral to both longevity and interest-rate risk.

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Working Paper no. 22/11

Piani urbanistici e mercato dei diritti edificatori

G. B. Ramello, A. Romano

La perequazione urbanistica è stata introdotta di recente dai Comuni di Roma e di Milano, oltre che dal legislatore. Questa tecnica, sviluppata con prudenza e con obiettivi perequativi precisi negli Usa, viene interpretata in Italia in modo molto meno accurato e, soprattutto, viene fi nalizzata a obiettivi impropri, di cassa della finanza pubblica. La politica rischia di prevalere sull’ottimalità dell’uso del suolo.
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Working Paper no. 23/11

Credit constraints and productive entrepreneurship in Africa

M. Baliamoune-Lutz, Z. Brixiová, L. Ndikumana

Limited access of entrepreneurs to credit constrains the creation and growth of private firms. In Africa, access to credit is particularly limited for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to unclear property rights and the lack of assets that can be used as collateral. This paper presents a model where firm creation and growth hinge on matching potential entrepreneurs with productive technologies, while firm growth depends on acquired capital. The shortage of collateral creates a binding credit constraint on borrowing by SMEs and hence private sector growth and employment, even though the banking sectors have ample liquidity, as is the case in many African countries. The model is tested using a sample of 20 African countries over the period 2005-09. The empirical results suggest
that policies aimed at easing the binding credit constraints (e.g., the depth of credit information and the strength of legal rights pertaining to collateral and bankruptcy) would stimulate productive entrepreneurship and private sector employment in Africa.

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Working Paper no. 24/11

Aggregate litigation and regulatory innovation: another view of judicial efficiency

G. B. Ramello

In this article, we argue that aggregate litigation and the court system can not only restore the protection of victims and the production of deterrence, but also play a pivotal role in stimulating regulatory innovation. This is accomplished through a reward system that seems largely to mimic the institutional devices used in other domains, such as intellectual property rights, by defining a proper set of incentives. Precisely the described solution relies on creating a specific economic framework able to foster economies of scale and grant a valuable property right over a specific litigation to an entrepreneurial individual, who in exchange provides the venture capital needed for the legal action, and produces inputs and focal points for amending regulations. In this light, aggregate litigation thus can be equally seen as an incubator for regulation.
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