Working papers 2011
(including abstracts)
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E. Luciano, L. Regis, E. Vigna This paper studies the hedging problem of life insurance policies, when the mortality and interest rates are stochastic. We focus primarily on stochastic mortality. We represent death arrival as the first jump time of a doubly stochastic process, i.e. a jump process with stochastic intensity. We propose a Delta-Gamma Hedging technique for mortality risk in this context. The risk factor against which to hedge is the difference between the actual mortality intensity in the future and its "forecast" today, the instantaneous forward intensity. We specialize the hedging technique first to the case in which survival intensities are ane, then to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Feller processes, providing actuarial justifications for this restriction. We show that, without imposing no arbitrage, we can get equivalent probability measures under which the HJM condition for no arbitrage is satisfied. Last, we extend our results to the presence of both interest rate and mortality risk, when the forward interest rate follows a constant-parameter Hull and White process. We provide a UK calibrated example of Delta and Gamma Hedging of both mortality and interest rate risk. |
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Property rights and externalities: the uneasy case of knowledge G. B. Ramello Drawing from Coase’s methodological
lesson, this article discusses the specific case of knowledge, which
was for a long time chiefly governed by exchange mechanisms lying
outside the market, and has only recently been brought into the market.
Its recent, heavy “colonization” by the property paradigm has
progressively elicited criticism from commentators who, for various
reasons, believe that the market can play only a limited role in
pursuing efficiency in the knowledge domain. The article agrees with
the enounced thesis and tries to provide an explanation of it that
relates to the fact that in specific circumstances property-rights can
produce distinct market failures that affect the social cost and can
consequently prevent attainment of social welfare. |
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GDP as a measure of economic welfare M. Syrquin Ever since the early days of National
Income accounting we can observe periodic surges of demands to fix the
measurement of GDP to better reflect progress, welfare or even
happiness. In recent years even Presidents and Prime Ministers in
Europe have joined the chorus of the discontent. In this paper I argue
that the critique is mostly misguided. Welfare measurement has not been
the objective of the GDP accounts especially since the late 1940s when
National Accounts became a vehicle for applying Keynesian economics
for, primarily, short run stabilization. I also argue that the search
for a unique index of welfare, well-being, or happiness |
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Organizational paths of commercializing patented inventions: the effects of transaction costs, firm capabilities, and collaborative ties T. Jung, J. P. Walsh This study examines the factors
affecting modes of commercializing patented inventions using a novel
dataset based on a survey of U.S. inventors. We find that technological
uncertainty and possessing complementary assets raise the propensity
for internal commercialization. We find that R&D collaboration with
firms in a horizontal relationship is likely to increase the propensity
to license the invention. In addition, the paper shows that macro-level
environment conditions that affect exchange conditions, such as
technology familiarity, influence the effects of capabilities on
governance choice. |
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"Are genetically modified foods bad for my
health?" S. Beraldo, S. Ottone, G.
Turati We investigate the role of information
on consumers’ valuation for food products containing genetically
modified organisms (GMOs), using data from a specifically designed
survey. We provide three main results. First, we show that introducing
mandatory labels to identify whether or not a food product contains
GMOs, significantly reduces consumers’ valuation. Second, adding to the
label additional information on GMOs significantly affects valuation.
Third, no matter the sign of the information previously received,
consumers are more willing to trust General Practitioners (GPs), the
information source they prefer most. Overall, these results indicate
that the crucial issue is not the presence of the label per se, but the
availability of the necessary information to make good use of the label
content to assess potential health risks deriving from GM foods. In
particular, our findings suggest that this can be achieved by properly
informing (and convincing) GPs and other health professionals that
risks for human health are minimal. |
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The simple economics of class action: private provision of club and public goods A. Cassone, G. B. Ramello This article uses economic categories to
show how the reorganisation of civil procedure in the case of class
action is not merely |
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On firm growth and innovation. Some new empirical perspectives using French CIS (1992-2004) A. Colombelli, N. Haned,
C. Le Bas In the paper we wish to examine if the
firms that innovate know a higher growth than the firm that do not. We
use diverse waves of CIS for the French industries over the period
1992-2004 and carry out different models and new econometric methods
(quantile regression). Our main findings are that innovative firms
produce more growth than non innovative firms. The estimates show that
the results are robust to the different types of models that we have
implemented. Process innovators are more productive in terms of growth
than product innovators when OLS and Random effects models are used.
The reverse is true for Fix effect model and quantile regression. In
the three growth equations estimated by GMM the coefficients related to
innovation product are always higher. Our study does not give
definitive results with respect to the magnitude of the effects of the
type of innovation on firm growth. |
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A comparative assessment of water markets: insights from the Murray-Darling basin of Australia and the Western US R.Q. Grafton, G.D.
Libecap, E.C. Edwards, R.J.O'Brien, C. Landry Water markets in Australia’s
Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) and the US west are compared in terms of
their ability to allocate scarce water resources. The study finds that
the gains from trade in the MDB are worth hundreds of millions of
dollars per year. Total market turnover in water rights exceeds $2
billion per year while the volume of trade exceeds over 20% of surface
water extractions. In Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, and Texas,
trades of committed water annually range between 5% and 15% of total
state freshwater diversions with over $4.3 billion (2008 $) spent or
committed by urban buyers between 1987 and 2008. The two-market
comparison suggests that policy attention should be directed towards
ways to promote water trade while simultaneously mitigating the
legitimate thirdparty concerns about how and where water is used,
especially conflicts between consumptive and in situ uses of water. The
study finds that institutional innovation is feasible in both countries
and that further understanding about the size, duration, and
distribution of third-party effects from water trade, and how these
effects might be regulated, can improve water markets to better manage
water scarcity. |
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Multinational firms in the world wine industry: an investigation into the determinants of most-favoured locations J.F. Outreville, M. Hanni The objective of the paper is to
identify some of the determinants of foreign investment of the largest
multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating in the wine industry. The
list of the largest MNEs has been compiled using financial databases
and company websites. |
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Maintaining taxes at the centre despite decentralization: interactions with national reforms G. Brosio, J.
P. Jiménez Although fiscal (de)centralization
literature explains easily the centralization of taxes on the basis of
a superior tax administration capacity, it finds more difficult to
argue why in federal and decentralized systems subnational governments
are ready to accept the demise of their taxing powers. This paper aims
to contribute to the debate by analyzing the conditions under in which
sub-national governments are willing to cede their taxing power to a
central authority. A simple bargaining model is used to illustrate the
choices available to both the central (federal) government and the
sub-national governments (regions), where the main contribution lies in
the introduction of the expenditure side of the budget and of its
relevance for solving the commitment issue. We conclude that tax
centralization will take place – transfers will prevail over
sub-national taxes – if substantial efficiency gains from the
centralized administration of taxes are expected. To support this
conclusion, the paper presents evidence from decentralization processes
in Argentina, Canada and Italy. |
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Power and entrepreneurship in German political economy: the cases of Werner Sombart and Friedrich von Wieser G.
Campagnolo, C. Vivel In the
present paper we are going to examine texts by Werner Sombart and
Friedrich von Wieser on entrepreneurship and the capitalist economy
using an interdisciplinary approach focused on economics but also
dealing with economic sociology and political philosophy.
We believe that both authors have been largely neglected, thus
overlooking the main
source of the theory of the entrepreneur in debates held in German
language and between
Germany and Austria around the 1900s. Without excluding earlier major references
(such as Jean-Baptiste Say, the first French economist at the Collège de France,) we
shall demonstrate that for both our authors the entrepreneur is the
keystone of a renewed
understanding of capitalism and the modern economy of their times. They stressed the
origins, functions and roles of the entrepreneur and showed that there cannot exist
only a single entrepreneurial form but there must necessarily be several ones,
depending on the context. Two lessons can be drawn from their texts: 1/
the
entrepreneur’s action needs to be reinstalled in the social, economic
and institutional context; 2/
the results of the actions of entrepreneurs are inherently difficult to
predict because the
action responds to institutional changes and is the outcome of such
changes.
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The relationship between insurance growth and economic development: 80 empirical papers for a review of the literature J.F. Outreville The objective
is to examine the determinants of the relationship between insurance
growth and economic development. This paper contributes to this body of
research by providing an extensive literature review of empirical
studies that have looked at both sides of the relationship, i.e. the
demand side (economic growth is an explanatory variable among other
factors that affect the demand) and the development side (insurance is
a determinant of growth).
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Do institutions and social cohesion enhance the effectiveness of aid? New evidence from Africa M. Baliamoune-Lutz Using the
Arellano-Bond dynamic panel GMM estimator, this paper explores the
effects of aid, institutions, and social cohesion on per-capita income
growth in 34 African countries, focusing in particular on the interplay
of aid and institutions and the interplay of aid and social cohesion.
The empirical results indicate that social cohesion enhances the growth
effects of aid but there is a threshold effect, suggesting that aid
becomes effective in enhancing growth in countries with higher social
cohesion. Surprisingly, the results show that beyond a certain level of
improvements in institutional quality, institutions (political rights
and civil liberties) reduce the effectiveness of aid. We discuss the
implications of these results.
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Is there a health-care problem in Western societies? E. Colombatto The recent
crisis in public finance that has characterized most Western countries
has stoked renewed interest in the possibility of reducing government
expenditure by reforming the health-care system. After reviewing the
origins of today’s state intervention in this field, the present paper
argues that policy-makers will certainly strive to contain health-care
of expenditure. Yet, it also claims that unless the ideological context
that has favoured the birth and development of the current systems
undergoes significant transformation, reform in this area is bound to
remain elusive. In particular, the myth of social justice and the
concept of human dignity need to be reassessed. The outcome of this
process will determine to which extent state intervention in the health
sector will lose its rent-seeking connotations, while increasing
attention will underscore critical phenomena to which the principle of
individual responsibility offers only limited solutions.
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Simultaneous determination of market value and risk premium in the valuation of firms S. Lutz Valuing a
firm using the discounted cash flow method (DCF) requires the joint
determination of the market value of its equity (MVE) together with the
equity risk premium (ERP) the firm should earn, since the latter is
part of the discount rate used in the calculation of the MVE. This
paper presents a theoretical derivation of how MVE and ERP can be
calculated simultaneously under fairly general conditions. Besides firm
data on free cash flow to equity the only external data needed are the
risk-free rate of interest and a parameter indicating the required
market risk premium per return volatility.
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Indirect copyright infringement liability for ISPs and the economics of contracts under asymmetric information R. Watt Under current
copyright law, Internet Service Providers (ISPs) can be found liable
for the traffic on the websites that they host. While the ISPs
themselves are not undertaking acts that infringe copyright, indirect
liability asserts that they either contribute to, or encourage in some
way, infringing activities, and thus they are liable to claims of
indirect involvement by the affected copyright holders. The present
paper explores indirect liability in a standard principal-agent
setting, where both moral hazard (the act of monitoring) and adverse
selection (differential costs of monitoring over ISPs) are present. The
model considers the kinds of contracts that could be signed between the
copyright holders (acting through a collective) and the ISPs (acting
individually). The self-selecting, incentive compatible equilibrium is
found for the feasible scenarios that may present themselves.
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A note on greater downside risk aversion R. Watt This paper
characterizes downside risk aversion in a simple and intuitive manner.
It is shown that using this characterization one can simplify
considerably a theorem by Jindapon (2010) relating to greater downside
risk aversion as measured by the prudence probability premium. The
comparative statics of downside risk aversion in risk-free wealth are
also considered.
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Life is now! S. Beraldo, R. Caruso, G.
Turati This paper
tests the relationship between time preferences and crime rates as
posited by Davis (1988), whose theoretical analysis suggests that
individuals’ attitude towards the future significantly affect their
propensity to commit crime. Our empirical analysis is based on a panel
of Italian regions for the period 2002-2007. Various proxies for time
preferences are considered: the consumer credit share out of the total
amount of loans to households, the share of obese individuals out of
the total population, and the rate of marriages out of the total
population. In line with the theoretical prediction, our empirical
analysis confirms that where people are more impatient and discount the
future more heavily, property and violent crimes are higher. Results
are robust to a number of alternative specifications including
covariates drawn from the literature on the determinants of crime.
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Una lezione in edicola S. Adamo Il presente
saggio contiene una disamina e valutazione dell’attività di Pasquale
Jannaccone come opinion maker mediante un’analisi degli editoriali
pubblicati su “La Nuova Stampa”. Dopo un breve profilo scientifico
dell’autore, vengono affrontati tre elementi relativi al suo lavoro di
opinionista: lo stile didascalico dei suoi articoli; il sostegno alla
politica monetaria di Luigi Einaudi durante l’impegno politico di
quest’ultimo; la sua difesa dei principi liberisti e liberali in un
dibattito caratterizzato da una marcata ostilità verso la tradizione
del liberalismo anglosassone. Si sostiene inoltre che l’elemento di
maggiore interesse dell’opera di Jannaccone come opinion maker consista
nella sua caratteristica consapevolezza delle difficoltà nascoste delle
teorie economiche, tale da fargli concepire la sua attività
giornalistica nel senso di uno strumento di educazione piuttosto che di
mera persuasione.
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Intra-organizational integration and innovation: organizational structure, environmental contingency and R&D performance Y-N. Lee, J. P. Walsh It is widely
thought that intra-firm integration has a positive effect on
organizational performance, especially in environments characterized by
complex and uncertain information. However, counter arguments suggest
that integration may limit flexibility and thereby reduce performance
in the face of uncertainty. Research and development activities of a
firm are especially likely to face complex and uncertain information
environments. Following prior work in contingency theory, this paper
analyzes the effects of intra-organizational integration on
manufacturing firms’ innovative performance. Based on a survey of
R&D units in US manufacturing firms and patent data from the NBER
patent database, we examine the relation between mechanisms for linking
R&D to other units of the firm and the relative innovativeness of
the firm. Furthermore, we argue that the impact of integration may vary
by the importance of secrecy in protecting firms’ innovation
advantages. We find that intra-firm integration is associated with
higher self-reported innovativeness and more patents. We also find some
evidence that this effect is moderated by the appropriability regime
the firm faces, with the benefits of cross-functional integration being
weaker in industries where secrecy is especially important. These
results both support and develop the contingency model of
organizational performance.
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E. Luciano, L. Regis, E. Vigna The paper presents closed-form Delta and Gamma hedges for annuities and death assurances, in the presence of both longevity and interest-rate risk. Longevity risk is modelled through an extension of the classical Gompertz law, while interest rate risk is modelled via an Hull-and-White process. We theoretically provide natural hedging strategies, considering also contracts written on dierent generations. We provide a UK-population and bond-market calibrated example. We compute longevity exposures and explicitly calculate Delta-Gamma hedges. Re-insurance is needed in order to set-up portfolios which are Delta-Gamma neutral to both longevity and interest-rate risk. |
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Piani urbanistici e mercato dei diritti edificatori G. B. Ramello, A. Romano La
perequazione urbanistica è stata introdotta di recente dai Comuni di
Roma e di Milano, oltre che dal legislatore. Questa tecnica, sviluppata
con prudenza e con obiettivi perequativi precisi negli Usa, viene
interpretata in Italia in modo molto meno accurato e, soprattutto,
viene fi nalizzata a obiettivi impropri, di cassa della finanza
pubblica. La politica rischia di prevalere sull’ottimalità dell’uso del
suolo.
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Credit constraints and productive entrepreneurship in Africa M. Baliamoune-Lutz, Z.
Brixiová, L. Ndikumana Limited
access of entrepreneurs to credit constrains the creation and growth of
private firms. In Africa, access to credit is particularly limited for
small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to unclear property rights and
the lack of assets that can be used as collateral. This paper presents
a model where firm creation and growth hinge on matching potential
entrepreneurs with productive technologies, while firm growth depends
on acquired capital. The shortage of collateral creates a binding
credit constraint on borrowing by SMEs and hence private sector growth
and employment, even though the banking sectors have ample liquidity,
as is the case in many African countries. The model is tested using a
sample of 20 African countries over the period 2005-09. The empirical
results suggest
Downloadthat policies aimed at easing the binding credit constraints (e.g., the depth of credit information and the strength of legal rights pertaining to collateral and bankruptcy) would stimulate productive entrepreneurship and private sector employment in Africa. |
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Aggregate litigation and regulatory innovation: another view of judicial efficiency G. B. Ramello In this
article, we argue that aggregate litigation and the court system can
not only restore the protection of victims and the production of
deterrence, but also play a pivotal role in stimulating regulatory
innovation. This is accomplished through a reward system that seems
largely to mimic the institutional devices used in other domains, such
as intellectual property rights, by defining a proper set of
incentives. Precisely the described solution relies on creating a
specific economic framework able to foster economies of scale and grant
a valuable property right over a specific litigation to an
entrepreneurial individual, who in exchange provides the venture
capital needed for the legal action, and produces inputs and focal
points for amending regulations. In this light, aggregate litigation
thus can be equally seen as an incubator for regulation.
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