Working papers 2006 (including abstracts)

papers on grey background are part of the Special Edition of Applied Mathematics


Working Paper no.1/06

"I shop, therefore I am"
Produktivistische und Konsumistische Aspekte des Selbst

Peter Koslowski

Konsumieren und Produzieren sind Formen, in denen sich das Selbst mit sei-ner Umwelt auseinandersetzt. Konsumieren ist bereits für den nicht-mensch-lichen Organismus notwendig. Jeder Organismus konsumiert aus seiner Um-welt, seinem äußeren Milieu, um sein inneres Milieu aufrechtzuerhalten. Nur wenige Tierarten wie Biber, Termiten u. Ä. „praktizieren“ dagegen Vorformen von Produktion. Das Konsumieren ist daher für das Reich der Organismen wichtiger als das Produzieren. Man kann überleben, ohne zu produzieren, aber man kann nicht leben, ohne zu konsumieren. Es ist daher deutlich, dass dem Konsum für die menschliche Existenz, aber auch für das Leben anderer Orga-nismen große Bedeutung zukommt.

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Working Paper no.2/06

Evaluating alternative representations of the choice sets in models of labour supply

Rolf Aaberge, Ugo Colombino and Tom Wennemo

During the last two decades, the discrete-choice modelling of labour supply decisions has become increasingly popular, starting with Aaberge et al. (1995) and van Soest (1995). Within the literature adopting this approach there are however two potentially important issues that are worthwhile analyzing in their implications and that so far have not been given the attention they might deserve. A first issue concerns the procedure by which the discrete alternatives are selected to enter the choice set.  For example van Soest (1995) chooses (non probabilistically) a set of fixed points identical for every individual. This is by far the most widely adopted method. By contrast, Aaberge et al. (1995) adopt a sampling procedure suggested by McFadden (1978) and also assume that the choice set may differ across the households. A second issue concerns the availability of the alternatives. Most authors assume all the values of hours-of-work within some range [0, H] are equally available. At the other extreme, some authors assume only two or three alternatives (e.g. non-participation, part-time and full-time) are available for everyone. Aaberge et al. (1995) assume instead that not all the hour opportunities are equally available to everyone; they specify a probability density function of opportunities for each individual and the discrete choice set used in the estimation is built by sampling from that individual-specific density function. In this paper we explore by simulation the implications of

-          the procedure used to build the choice set (fixed alternatives vs sampled alternatives)

-          accounting or not accounting for a different availability of alternatives.

The way the choice set is represented seems to have little impact on the fitting of observed values, but a more significant and important impact on the out-of-sample prediction performance. 
 
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Working Paper no.3/06

Comovements in International Stock Markets

Claudio Morana and Andrea Beltratti

In the paper monthly realized moments for stock market returns for the US, the UK, Germany and Japan are employed to assess the linkages hold-ing across moments and markets over the period 1973-2004. In the light of the theoretical framework proposed in the paper, the results point to a progressive integration of the four stock markets, leading to increasing comovements in prices, returns, volatility and correlation. Evidence of a positive and non spurious linkage between volatility and correlation, and a trend increase in correlation coe fficients over time, is also found. All the above mentioned linkages seem to be particularly strong for the US and Europe, while the persistent stagnation of the economy and the weak fun-damentals over the 1990s may have been the cause of the more idiosyncratic behavior of the Japanese stock market.

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Working Paper no.4/06

The Separations of powers, the rule of law and economic performance

Suri Ratnapala

Markets work best when the rules of the game are stable, property rights are secure and contracts are observed. These conditions are promoted by the rule of law in the classical liberal sense of the supremacy of general laws over public and private authority. Devices such as mixed government and the separation of powers are believed to be conducive to the rule of law. However, the degree of formal separation of powers in a constitution does not always co-relate to rule of law conditions and hence to economic performance. Hence the speculation that the separation of powers is not a necessary condition to the rule of law. The paper argues against such a conclusion by developing an account of the separation of powers that focuses on its methodological thesis in addition to its better known thesis of the diffusion of power.

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Working Paper no.5/06

A note on stochastic survival probabilities and their calibration

Elisa Luciano and Elena Vigna

In this note we use doubly stochastic processes (or Cox processes) in order to model the evolution of the stochastic force of mortality of an individual aged x. These processes have been widely used in the credit risk literature in modelling the default arrival, and in this context have proved to be quite flexible and useful. We investigate the applicability of these processes in describing the individual's mortality, and provide a calibration to the Italian case. Results from the calibration are twofold. Firstly, the stochastic intensities seem to better capture the development of medicine and long term care which is under our daily observation. Secondly, when pricing insurance products such as life annuities, we observe a remarkable premium increase, although the expected residual lifetime is essentially unchanged.

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Working Paper no.6/06

Credit risk in pure jump structural models

Filippo Fiorani, Jaap Spreeuw and Elisa Luciano

Structural models of credit risk are known to present vanishing spreads at very short maturities. This shortcoming, which is due to the diffusive behavior assumed for asset values, can be circumvented by considering discontinuities of the jump type in their evolution over time. In particular, assuming a pure jump process. Moreover, when applied to market data diffusion-based structural models tend to produce too low spreads, even over longer horizons. In this paper we show that a jump process of the Variance-Gamma type for the asset value can also circumvent this practical shortcoming. We calibrate a terminal-default jump structural model to single-name data for the CDX NA IG and CDX NA HY components. We show that the VG model provides not only smaller errors, but also a better qualitative fit than other diffusive structural models. Indeed, it avoids both the spread underprediction of the classical Merton model and the excessive overpredictions of other well known diffusive models, as recently explored by Eom, Helwege, Huang (2004) or Demchuk and Gibson (2005).

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Working Paper no.7/06

Law, Economics and the Institutional Approach to  Development and Transition: towards an Evolutionary perspective

Enrico Colombatto

The principles underlying evolutionary psychology suggest an approach to Law and Economics that tends to reject top-down policy making and encourages a bottom-up stance, whereby rules lead to behavioral routines that are consistent with individuals’ shared psychological patterns.
The view proposed here is fruitful from a methodological perspective, in that it allows a new classification of societies, new insight on their prospects for economic growth, an innovative appreciation of the chances for successful transition in areas that have undergone substantial political transformation.

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Working Paper no.8/06

Extremism, Suicide Terror, and Authoritarism

Ronald Wintrobe

This paper studies extremist behaviour, and its connection to authoritarianism. I divide extremists into two groups, leaders, who demand extremist acts such as assassinations, suicide  terror or other forms of political violence from followers, who supply them. I assume that both the leaders of extremist groups and their followers are rational. The paper looks at three examples: Communism, Nationalism and Islamic Fundamentalism.  I show that leaders with extreme ideologies also tend to adopt violent methods when there is an indivisibility between the intermediate goal of the group and its ultimate goal.  Turning to followers, the most important innovation of the paper is a simple model which explains how it is possible for a person to rationally commit suicide to further the goals of a group.
The most important policy implications of the paper are, firstly, that one should look at the goals of extremist group in order to understand their actions. If one can un- bundle the goal or make the indivisible divisible, then there may be ways to provide these goals in a way which satisfies some of the potential supporters of the group and thus dries up support for the grander ambitions of the leaders of extremist groups. Secondly, the provision of programs which foster social cohesion tends to dry up an important  motive for extremist activity:  the desire for solidarity. Thirdly, policy towards terrorists should  should combine the use of “carrot” and “stick”. Finally, I argue that authoritarian regimes rather than democracies or totalitarian regimes are the most likely sources of suicide terror.  So democracy is indeed part of the solution to the problem of suicide terrorism.

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Working Paper no.9/06

Biological Globalization:the other Grain Invasion

Alan L. Olmstead and Paul W. Rhode

Contemporary accounts of the history of globalization place the grain trade in a leading role.  Narrowing price gaps for wheat in world markets serve as the key indicator of increasing market integration.  And the chief example of an early policy backlash is the rising protectionism of European importers in response to the “Great Grain Invasion” of New World grain in the late nineteenth century. These accounts focus on the important role of falling transportation cost, but neglect other crucial biological innovations that allowed expanding the wheat cultivation in the new lands, what we call the “other grain invasion.” This paper documents that over the 1866-1930 the average distance of world wheat production from the core consumer markets doubled, as the wheat frontier moved on much harsher (colder and more arid) climates.  Examining the detailed histories of major producers on the periphery, we show that this move involved, and indeed required extensive experimentation by farmers and crop scientists to find new suitable cultivars that could thrive in the new environments and survive the evolving pest and disease threats.  Flows of germplasm and knowledge about breeding occurred not only from center to periphery, but also and importantly within the periphery and from the periphery to the center as an increasing integrated global community of crop scientists emerged over the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.  Finally, we speculate about why in some regions pioneering plant breeders are heralded as national heroes whereas in others they are sadly under-appreciated.

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Working Paper no.10/06

A Multivariate Time-Changed Lévy Model for Financial Applications

Patrizia Semeraro

The purpose of this paper is to define a bivariate L´evy process by subordination of a Brownian motion. In particular we investigate a generalization of the bivariate Variance Gamma process proposed in Luciano and Schoutens [8] as a price process. Our main contribution here is to introduce a bivariate subordinator with correlated Gamma margins. We characterize the process and study its dependence structure. At the end wealso propose an exponential Lévy price model based on our process.

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Working Paper no.11/06

Workers on the Border between Employment and Self-employment 

Ulrike Muehlberger and Silvia Pasqua

The number of workers on the border between self-employment and employment strongly increased across Europe over the last decade. This paper investigates whether and in what respect these workers differ from employees and self-employed and analyses whether these work relationships are a stepping stone to more stable employment in the short-run using Italian data. Depending on the data source the “para-subordinates” represent between 1.8% and 5.3% of the Italian labour force. Since most of them work only for one company and are strongly integrated into the firm of the contract partner, we argue that labour and social security law discriminates against these workers who are in fact very close to employees. We find that they are not low qualified workers, but young, highly educated professionals. At the same time these contracts are not a port of entry into the labour market nor do we find that they are a vehicle to more stable jobs. However, they are a possibility for women to work part-time.  

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Working Paper no.12/06

Asymptotic Distribution Theory of Empirical Rank-dependent measures of Inequity 

Rolf Aaberge

A major aim of most income distribution studies is to make comparisons of income inequality across time for a given country and/or compare and rank different countries according to the level of income inequality. However, most of these studies lack information on sampling errors, which makes it difficult to judge the significance of the attained rankings.
The purpose of this paper is to derive the asymptotic properties of the empirical rank-dependent family of inequality measures. A favourable feature of this family of inequality measures is that it includes the Gini coefficients, and that any member of this family can be given an explicit and simple expression in terms of the Lorenz curve. By relying on a result of Doksum [14] it is easily demonstrated that the empirical Lorenz curve, regarded as a stochastic process, converges to a Gaussian process. Moreover, this result forms the basis of the derivation of the asymptotic properties of the empirical rank-dependent measures of inequality.  

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Working Paper no.13/06

Bureaupreneurs in China: we did it our way
A comparative study of the explanation of the economic successes of town-village-enterprises in China
 

Boudewijn R.A. Bouckaert

This article explores the different and sometimes conflicting explanations of the success of the collective enterprises (town-village-enterprise) in China during the first phase of transition (1979-1995). It is argued that explanations, relying on cultural variables are not sustainable and this for two reasons. First, the importance of the collective enterprise is shrinking while the private sector is clearly on the rise. Second, other factors, referring to characteristics of the local and central political, administrative and economic environment, in which the Chinese enterprise has to (had to?) operate, provide for a sufficient explanation of the peculiar structure of the Chinese collective enterprises. These enterprises are seen as the result of ‘bureau-preneurship’ because local bureaucrats were integrated in their management in order to pre-empt predatory behaviour and to facilitate the relationships with the central institutions. The article contributes to the property rights’ theory of the firm as it analyses an empirically very important case in which firms with unclear property rights and structures, apparently not conducive for incentives, might still be the most efficient option 

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Working Paper no.14/06

Wirtschftsethik und Unternehmensethik Zwei Kurzdarstellungen 

Peter Koslowski

Economic ethics describes the interaction of ethics and economics in explaining human action and in giving normative advice to ethically justifiable and efficient choices of action. As ethical economy, it analyses the ethical conditions of coordination in markets and the economic conditions of ethically legitimate behaviour. Ethical economy is a theory of the ethics and culture of the economy. Formal ethics is the pre-coordination of the economic coordination of the price system, material value ethics is the clarification of the value categories of goods and a general theory of value and good. Economic ethics is applied to the questions of incomplete contracts, professional ethics and the marginal ethics of an industry, and conflicts of interest. Business ethics describes the role of ethics in commercial firms and not-for-profit organisations. It is an organisational ethics and an individual ethics since there is organisational and individual failure to act properly. Individual ethics can neither be substituted for institutional ethics nor institutional ethics by individual ethics. The basic principles of business ethics in business interactions are mutual value creation and serving contracts. The role of the manager is not only to be the agent of the owners or shareholders but to be the fiduciary of the whole firm and to act in the common interest of the firm. The right incentives must be set in firms since there are also perverse incentives. Triple bottom line accounting that encompass ethical and environmental performance indicators introduces richer criteria of business success. Both articles are the longer versions of articles that were prepared for the leading German encyclopaedia, Brockhaus Enzyklopädie in 30 Bänden, 21st edition, Leipzig (F. A. Brockhaus) Fall 2006.
  
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Working Paper no.15/06

The Economy of Happiness 

Peter Koslowski

Happiness in philosophical ethics and utility or satisfaction in economics have much in common. The paper investigates the ethical economy of happiness as a joint topic of ethical and economic theory. It shows that limits of the calculus of utility maximization also apply to concepts of the greatest happiness in philosophy: It is impossible to distinguish the utility or happiness maximizing life strategy. The paper discusses the problem of inter-personal comparisons of happiness and satisfaction and the relevance of the theory of material value qualities developed by Max Scheler’s non-formal, material value ethics for the theory of goods, private and public. Ethics and economics are concerned with rules and duties. It is, however, also necessary to develop a theory of goods and values. Reflections are also made on the relationship between fact and value. Since there are side-effects of facts or experiences on our values, the naturalist fallacy of deriving value statements from experience seems to be less a fallacy than is usually assumed since Hume.
  
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Working Paper no.16/06

Sampling the Dirichlet Mixture Model with Slices

Stephen G. Walker

We provide a new approach to the sampling of the well known mixture of Dirichlet process model. Recent attention has focused on retention of the random distribution function in the model, but sampling algorithms have then suffered from the countably infinite representation these distributions have. The key to the algorithm detailed in this paper, which also keeps the random distribution functions, is the introduction of a latent variable which allows a finite number, which is known, of objects to be sampled within each iteration of a Gibbs sampler.
  
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Working Paper no.17/06

A Flaming-Viot Process and Bayesian  non Parametric

Theodoros Nicoleris, Spyridon J. Hatjispyros and Stephen G. Walker

This paper provides a construction of a Fleming-Viot measure valued diffusion process, for which the transition function is known, by extending recent ideas of Gibbs sampler based Markov processes. In particular, we concentrate on the Chapman-Kolmogorov consistency conditions which allows a simple derivation of such a Fleming-Viot process, once a key, and apparently new combinatorial result for P´olya-urn sequences has been established.
  
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Working Paper no.18/06

Conceptual Issues for the Comparative Study of Agricultural Development

Alan L. Olmstead, Paul W. Rhode

This paper begins by addressing the central questions underlying the country-specific essays in this volume: what was the relationship between agricultural development and the development of other sectors?  Did agricultural growth support or compete with industrial development?  And, was an agricultural revolution a necessary condition for an industrial revolution?  We also ask how the growth of the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors during the great transformation of the European economies compared with the relative growth of these two sectors in later developing Asian economies.  We next draw on Theodore Schultz’s insights to help frame the comparative study of European development.  In addition, we note the shortcomings of the “New Growth Theory” as a tool for historical analysis and explore some of the conceptual pitfalls associated with the use of induced innovation and threshold models—paradigms commonly employed to explain the diffusion of technologies and cropping systems.  A better understanding of these two models, and of the broader global experience, suggest a reassessment of important issues in European agricultural development. 

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Working Paper no.19/06

Why Foreign Aid Fails

Miroslav Prokopijevic

The main point of this paper is that foreign aid fails because the structure of its incentives resembles that of central planning. Aid is not only ineffective, it is arguably counterproductive. Contrary to business firms that are paid by those they are supposed to serve (customers), aid agencies are paid by tax payers of developed countries and not by those they serve. This inverse structure of incentives breaks the stream of pressure that exists on the commercial market. It also creates larger loopholes in the principle-agent relationship on each point along the chain of aid delivery. Both factors enhance corruption, moral hazard and negative selection. Instead of promoting development, aid extends the life of bad institutions and those in power. Proposals to reform foreign aid – like aid privatization and aid conditionality – do not change the existing structure of the incentives in aid delivery, and their implementation may just slightly improve aid efficacy. Larger improvement is not possible. For that reason, foreign aid will continue to be a waste of resources, probably serving some objectives different to those that are usually mentioned, like recipient’s development, poverty reduction and pain relief.

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Working Paper no.20/06

The Economic Effects of Competition Policy
Cross Country Evidence Using Four New Indicators

Stefan Voigt

This paper introduces a number of indicators on various aspects of competition laws and competition agencies in order to make competition policies comparable. It contains an indicator concerned with the objectives and the instruments of competition laws, a second indicator evaluating to what degree an economic – as opposed to a legal – approach to competition policy has been chosen. Based on the assumption that it is not the content of the law alone but also the structures erected in order to implement the law, it further presents an indicator reflecting the formal independence of competition agencies and a fourth one reflecting their factual independence. These four indicators are used to estimate the effects of competition policies on economic growth. It turns out that all four variables contribute to explaining differences in total factor productivity. Yet, their impact is not particularly robust to the inclusion of indicators for the general quality of institutions.

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Working Paper no.21/06

The Anatomy of Market Power in Electricity Markets with Hydropower as Dominating Technology

Finn R. Førsund

The problem of optimal management of a water reservoir by a hydropower producer is necessarily a dynamic one since water can be transferred between periods. A hydropower producer being a monopolist cannot reduce output in the classical way without spilling water. He will follow a strategy of setting marginal revenues equal between time periods and thus shift water from relatively inelastic periods to relatively elastic ones. If the monopolist has thermal capacity the strategy is the same, but the utilization of thermal capacity is reduced. If the monopolist has control over external trade import is reduced and export increased compared with the social solution. Technical constraints of limited reservoir and interconnector capacity and a competitive fringe may reduce markedly the consequences of exercising market power.

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Working Paper no.22/06

Lenin and the Currency Competition
Reflections on the NEP Experience

Nikolay Nenovsky

Institutional competition stirs the interest of economists following a certain cyclical pattern. In this context, it is very interesting to look back at the experience of Lenin and the Bolsheviks of adopting monetary competition to stabilize their political and economic power after the crash of the war communism (and the attempts to annihilate money). The currency competition lasts less than two years and ends up with establishing the chervonetz as the only monetary unit. As a whole, this can be considered a successful economic experience. Nevertheless, the main conditions for effective institutional competition were not met – the two currencies were unequally positioned and, what is more, the institutional complementarity principle was not present. Other basic market institutions were lacking or much diminished in functions – mostly the property rights, the principle of free price setting as well as competition in the political and ideological sphere. In general, the NEP model is utterly controversial and its market structure is to a great extent false. This is what actually doomed monetary stability afterwards and left no room for money competition to spread its wings. Despite all these shortcomings, even in its reduced form, the monetary competition, gives a number of positive, though only temporary, results. This reveals the presence of purely technological characteristics of currency competition related to the behavior of money users. In part one we remind briefly of the chronology of events in the first years of the Bolshevik’s regime; part two shows the dynamics of currency competition between the sovznak and the chervonetz, and in the last part we attempt to draw some theoretical observations related to the necessary conditions for a successful institutional competition.

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Working Paper no.23/06

Business Ethics in Globalized Financial Markets

Peter Koslowski

Globalization extends the space of the things that are simultaneous for the human. This applies particularly to the decision-making in financial markets. The global market for capital is one of the main causes for globalization. How is this process of globalization to be judged from the point of view of business ethics?
The paper investigates the ethical foundations of capital markets and of financial consulting. It analyzes the foundational theories of corporate governance in the Anglo-American and in the German context. Their difference can be described as external control by competition versus internal control by consensus. The paper gives merit to the different models of governance and to their origin in different conceptions of government. It argues for a twofold strategy: to strengthen the external control of firms by competing teams of management that are able to make an effective take-over threat and to implement elements of workers’ participation in corporate governance as long as increases the efficiency of management - provided that these elements maintain the control rights of the firm’s owners.

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Working Paper no.24/06

Un'Analisi Economica della Partecipazione ai Referendum Abrogativi

Roberto Ricciuti

In questo lavoro viene analizzata la partecipazione dei cittadini ai referendum abrogativi con particolare riferimento a quattro possibili determinati: caratteristiche dei quesiti (distributivi o di efficienza), numero di referendum votati contemporaneamente, mese del voto e posizione dei partiti. La decisione di votare o di astenersi è molto importante in quanto la Costituzione prevede il quorum del 50% più uno degli aventi diritto al voto per la validità del referendum. I risultati mostrano che i referendum distributivi hanno una partecipazione al voto maggiore di quella dei referendum di efficienza, maggiore è la percentuale di elettori che si riconoscono nei partiti che sostengono l’astensione, minore è la percentuale di votanti. Inoltre i referendum votati in giugno presentano una minore partecipazione. Il numero di referendum votati contemporaneamente non ha effetti sulla percentuale di votanti fino ad un numero di cinque. A partire da questa analisi si discutono alcune proposte di riforma.

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Working Paper no.25/06

International Stock Markets Comovements: the Role of Economic and Financial Integration

Claudio Morana

In this paper the contributions of economic and financial integration to international stock markets comovements are investigated by means of a large scale macroeconometric model, set in the factor vector autoregressive framework (FVAR). The findings point to a key role of both economic and financial integration in determining stock markets comovements among the G-7 countries. While the former exercises its effects through the common response to global economic shocks, the latter operates through financial shocks spillovers, particularly at the regional level.

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Working Paper no.26/06

Structural Econometric Approach to Bidding in the Main refinancing Operations of the Eurosystem

Nuno Cassola, Christian Ewerhart and Claudio Morana

This paper contributes to the existing literature on central bank repo auctions. It is based on a structural econometric approach, whereby the primitives of bidding behavior (individual bid schedules and bid-shading components) are directly estimated. With the estimated parameters we calibrate a theoretical model in order to illustrate some comparative static results. This exercise sheds light on the debate about the reversed winner's curse found in the empirical literature on ECB auctions by showing that it may be related to an identification problem. Overall the results suggest that strategic and optimal behavior is prevalent in ECB tenders. We find evidence of a statistically significant bid-shading component, even though the number of bidders is very large. Bid-shading increases with liquidity uncertainty and decreases with the number of participants and with price uncertainty. We argue that a sufficient condition for the latter effect to appear in the data is that the residual supply facing an individual bidder does not change much ex-post when very short-term market rates increase.

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Working Paper no.27/06

The End of the Japanese Stagnation: an Assessment of the Policy Solutions

Claudio Morana

After more than a decade of stagnant growth, the Japanese economy is showing signs of full recovery, with deflation also having come to an end. Since the mid 1990s both supply side and demand side policy solutions to the Japanese stagnation have been suggested. By means of a Factor Vector Autoregressive Model, the paper aims to assess whether the real depreciation of the yen and the quantitative easying implemented by the Bank of Japan have contributed to the recovery of the Japanese economy and to halt deflationary dynamics. The results of the paper point to the effectiveness of these latter policies, as well as to the role exercised by domestic productivity improvements and the expansion of world economic activity.

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Working Paper no.28/06

Why is the World Short of Democracy?
A Cross-Country Ananlysis of Barriers to Representative Government

Vani K. Borooah, Martin Paldam

This study first uses a set of graphs and tables to present the pattern of democracy in the world, using the Gastil Index. Then a statistical analysis is conducted by two techniques: Regression techniques are used to analyze the effect on democracy of a handful of variables. It shows that poverty, Communism and the Muslim culture are the main barriers to democracy. It then uses Bayesian probability methods to make explicit the concept of the “risk” of countries being undemocratic. The analysis focuses on the dynamics of the income effect and of the democratic deficit of the Muslim countries to see if it is stationary or transitory. It is unstable, so it may be transitory, but it has been rising.

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Working Paper no.29/06

Distributions of Functionals of the two Parameter Poisson-Dirichlet Process

Lancelot F. James, Antonio Lijoi and Igor Prünster

The present paper provides exact expressions for the probability distribution of linear functionals of the two–parameter Poisson–Dirichlet process. Distributional results that follow from the application of an inversion formula for a (generalized) Cauchy–Stieltjes transform are achieved. Moreover, several interesting integral identities are obtained by exploiting a correspondence between the mean functional of a Poisson–Dirichlet process and the mean functional of a suitable Dirichlet process. Finally, some distributional characterizations in terms of mixture representations are illustrated. Our formulae are relevant to occupation time phenomena connected with Brownian motion and more general Bessel processes, as well as to models arising in Bayesian nonparametric
statistics.

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Working Paper no.30/06

Net Inflows and Time-Varying Alphas: The Case of Hedge Funds

Andrea Beltratti, Claudio Morana

The growth in the size of the hedge funds industry has led some in-vestors to worry about a decline in alphas, associated with reduced ar-bitrage opportunities in international financial markets. We introduce a multivariate components model for returns and net relative inflows into hedge funds, accounting for time-varying market premia. We estimate alpha as an unobserved component variable of the econometric model. We then assess whether several categories of hedge funds do produce extra
profits and whether the flows of funds into the industry are dynamically related to returns. Our results point to a positive correlation between past returns and future flows, while the evidence concerning the linkage between past flows and future returns is mixed. However, we do not find any structural decline in alpha for most hedge fund categories.

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Working Paper no.31/06

Value and Exchange in Law and Economics: Buchanan versus Posner

Alain Marciano

Meir Kohn’s Exchange and Value claims that economics can be characterised around two opposed paradigms, the exchange and the value paradigms. In this paper, we apply this dichotomy to characterise the analyses proposed by economists in the field known as “law and economics”. We compare and contrasts the perspectives proposed by two prominent scholars – James Buchanan and Richard Posner – and argue that they respectively represent the exchange and the value paradigm in law and economics. More precisely, we show that Buchanan sticks to a definition of economics based on the exchange paradigm, and this leads him to define law and economics in a rather specific, different, narrower than Posner’s way to define law and economics – a definition that corresponds to a conception of economics based on the value paradigm.

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Working Paper no.32/06

The Formation of Firms and the Prior Experience of New Entrepreneurs

Enrico Colombatto, Arie Melnik

We use a simple model to analyze the founding stage of new firms. Our goal is to characterize the directional causality between the expected rewards from entrepreneurship and the length of prior labor market experience that entrepreneurs possess. We test predictions about the timing of the formation of new firms on a sample of Italian entrepreneurs who founded new firms in the period 1992-2004. We obtain three main results. First, the timing of the foundation of new firms is determined primarily by the expectation of higher income and not so much by the perception of risk. Second, earlier experience of entrepreneurs in full time employment has a positive impact on the size of newly founded firms. Third, when we separate founders who work alone from founders who work with family partners, we find that the latter establish and control larger firms.

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Working Paper no.33/06

Linear and Quadratic Functionals of RandomHazard rates: an Asymptotic Analysis

Giovanni Peccati and Igor Prünster

A popular Bayesian nonparametric approach to survival analysis consists in modeling hazard rates as kernel mixtures driven by a completely random measure. In this paper we derive asymptotic results for linear and quadratic functionals of such random hazard rates. In particular, we prove central limit theorems for the cumulative hazard function and for the path--second moment and path--variance of the hazard rate. Our techniques are based on recently established criteria for the weak convergence of single and double stochastic integrals with respect to Poisson random measures. We illustrate our results by considering specific models involving kernels and random measures commonly exploited in practice.

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Working Paper no.34/06

Exchange Rate and Inflation: France and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period

Kalina Dimitrova and Nikolay Nenovsky

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, to compare the model of financial stabilization in the interwar period in France (a country in the “core”) with that in Bulgaria (a peripheral country). Second, applying modern econometric techniques (VAR models) we would like to “test “whether the theory designating a dominant role of the exchange rate on inflation (in comparison to that of money in circulation) holds and can be empirically proved by the actual movement of the monetary variables and the direction of their causality. Going back to the history of stabilization in France and Bulgaria in the interwar period and studying it through the theoretical ideas at the beginning of the XX century would provide us not only with new elements in the analysis of the present-day problems of monetary stabilizations but also add to the arguments of the crucial significance of the exchange rate and monetary rules for the efficiency and credibility of the monetary regime.

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Working Paper no.35/06

Monetary Convergence on the Road to EMU: Conceptual Issues for Eastern Europe

Nikolay Nenovsky

Traditional monetary and economic convergence in accordance with the Optimal Currency Areas model has a number of limitations. Above all, it fails to assess the state of formal and informal monetary institutions. Adequate for an industrial society, it does not address the change to a globalising information society, being mainly quantitative, aggregated, and generally mechanical. This removes it from reality, though keeping it close to a quantitative presentation. It fails to take into account invisible threats to convergence and East European country realities involving informal monetary institutions and differences in institutional development. Monetary regime efficiency is judged solely by Maastricht criteria fulfilment. These limitations may be overcome in two ways. The first is to take into account the institutional aspect of money, enabling discussion of institutional monetary convergence. The second way is to adopt institutional monetary competition, allowing at least some institutional competition in EEC monetary regimes in the run up to euro adoption and possibly allowing the euro to circulate in parallel with national currencies.

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Working Paper no.36/06

On the Definition and Measurement of Chronic Poverty

Rolf Aaberge, Magne Mogstad

As an alternative to the conventional methods for measuring chronic poverty, this paper proposes to use an interpersonal comparable measure of permanent income as a basis for defining and measuring chronic poverty. This approach accounts for the fact that individuals may undertake inter-period income transfers if it is to their advantage. Moreover, it allows for individual-specific interest rates on borrowing and saving as well as for the presence of liquidity constraints. Due to its general nature the proposed method proves useful for evaluating the theoretical basis of the standard methods for measuring chronic poverty.

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Working Paper no.37/06

Designing Optimal Taxes with a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply

Rolf Aaberge, Ugo Colombino

The purpose of this paper is to present an exercise where we identify optimal income tax rules under the constraint of fixed tax revenue. To this end, we estimate a microeconomic model with 78 parameters that capture heterogeneity in consumption-leisure preferences for singles and couples as well as in job opportunities across individuals based on detailed Norwegian household data for 1994. For any given tax rule, the estimated model can be used to simulate the choices made by single individuals and couples. Those choices are therefore generated by preferences and opportunities that vary across the decision units. Differently from what is common in the literature, we do not rely on a priori theoretical optimal taxation results, but instead we identify optimal tax rules – within a class of 6-parameter piece-wise linear rules - by iteratively running the model until a given social welfare function attains its maximum under the constraint of keeping constant the total net tax revenue. We explore a variety of social welfare functions with differing degree of inequality aversion and also two alternative social welfare principles, namely equality of outcome and equality of opportunity. All the social welfare functions turn out to imply an average tax rate lower than the current 1994 one. Moreover, all the optimal rules imply – with respect to the current rule – lower marginal rates on low and/or average income levels and higher marginal rates on relatively high income levels. These results are partially at odds with the tax reforms that took place in many countries during the last decades. While those reforms embodied the idea of lowering average tax rates, the way to implement it has typically consisted in reducing the top marginal rates. Our results instead suggest to lower average tax rates by reducing marginal rates on low and average income levels and increasing marginal rates on very high income levels.

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Working Paper no.38/06

Environmentalism versus Constitutionalism: a Contest without Winners

Suri Ratnapala

The New Zealand Resource Management Act imposes a system for micro-managing the environment. The Act is typical of current state approaches to environmental protection that places heavy reliance on command and control systems in preference to market based systems. Such laws impact heavily on property rights and due process and generally undermine the rule of law by creating centres of arbitrary authority. They also prevent the harnessing of widely dispersed knowledge that is vital to the determination of the costs and benefits of conservation and the development of realistic policy. These measures have been justified on the basis of the ‘precautionary principle’ and the concept of sustainable development and they are supported by claims of scientific consensus about major environmental issues such as climate change. The essay questions this consensus and argues that the precautionary principle and sustainable development are vacuous but dangerous doctrines. The apocalyptic and utopian visions of conservation are challenged and an evolutionary conceptualisation of the environment is proposed. The essay discusses the importance of property rights and compensation for takings as means of advancing legitimate environmental goals and argues that the New Zealand Resource Management Act is a deeply flawed model that imposes serious economic and constitutional costs that ultimately will weaken society’s capacity to achieve those goals.

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Working Paper no.39/06

Das Ende der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft

Peter Koslowski

Das Leitbild der Wirtschafts-und Sozialordnung der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, die Soziale Markwirtschaft, wird durch die Idee des sozialen Ausgleichs von Einkommensunterschieden durch die progressive Besteuerung, durch die umlagefinanzierte Altersvorsorge, durch die Mitbestimmung der Arbeitnehmer, vor allem mit Hilfe der Gewerkschaften, in der Leitung der Großunternehmen und durch das Konsensmodell der Unternehmensfinanzierung, eine enge Zusammenarbeit von Banken und Management, bestimmt. Diese Prinzipien, die gemeinsam das Ordnungsgeflecht der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft bilden, geraten durch die wirtschaftliche Entwiclung so unter Druck, daß sie nicht mehre greifen und das Ende der durch sie bestimmten Wirtschaftsordnung herbeiführen. Dies wird an drei Entwicklungen gezeigt: erstens an den Finanzierungsproblemen der Rentenversicherung aufgrund der demografischen Entwicklung, zweitens an der Abwanderung von Rentnern in den internationalen Kapitalmarkt, die durch die Schwäche des deutschen Kapitalmarkts bedingt ist und durch Pensionsfonds zu beleben ist, und an der Notwendigkeit, den Markt für Unternehmenskontrolle zu etablieren, um durch die Übernahmedrohung zu einer Leistungssteigerung des Managements der deutschen Großunternehmen zu gelangen. 

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Working Paper no.40/06

Multivariate modelling of long memory processes with common components

Claudio Morana

In the paper a new approach to the modelling of common components in long memory processes is introduced. The approach is based on a two-step procedure relying on Fourier transform methods (firrst step) and principal components analysis (second step), which, differently from previous contributions to the literature, allows the modelling of large data sets, both in terms of temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. Monte Carlo evidence, supporting the two-step estimation procedure, is also provided, as well as an empirical application to
real data.

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Working Paper no.41/06

International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach

Fabio C. Bagliano, Claudio Morana

In this paper international comovements among a set of key real and nominal macroeconomic variables for the G-7 countries have been investigated for the 1980-2005 period, using a Factor Vector Autoregressive approach. We present evidence that comovements in macroeconomic variables do not concern only real activity, but are an important feature also of stock market returns, inflation rates, interest rates and, to a smaller extent, monetary aggregates. Both common sources of shocks and similar transmission mechanisms explain international comovements, with the only exception of Japan, where the idiosyncratic features seem to dominate. Finally, concerning the origin of global shocks, evidence of both global supply-side and demand-side disturbances is found.

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