Working papers 2006
(including abstracts)
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"I
shop, therefore I am" Peter Koslowski Konsumieren und
Produzieren sind Formen, in denen sich das Selbst mit sei-ner Umwelt
auseinandersetzt. Konsumieren ist bereits für den nicht-mensch-lichen
Organismus notwendig. Jeder Organismus konsumiert aus seiner Um-welt,
seinem äußeren Milieu, um sein inneres Milieu aufrechtzuerhalten. Nur
wenige Tierarten wie Biber, Termiten u. Ä. „praktizieren“ dagegen
Vorformen von Produktion. Das Konsumieren ist daher für das Reich der
Organismen wichtiger als das Produzieren. Man kann überleben, ohne zu
produzieren, aber man kann nicht leben, ohne zu konsumieren. Es ist
daher deutlich, dass dem Konsum für die menschliche Existenz, aber auch
für das Leben anderer Orga-nismen große Bedeutung zukommt. |
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Evaluating alternative representations of the choice sets in models of labour supply Rolf Aaberge, Ugo Colombino and Tom Wennemo During
the last two
decades, the discrete-choice modelling of labour supply decisions has
become
increasingly popular, starting with Aaberge et al. (1995) and van Soest
(1995).
Within the literature adopting this approach there are however two
potentially
important issues that are worthwhile analyzing in their implications
and that
so far have not been given the attention they might deserve. A first
issue
concerns the procedure by which the discrete alternatives are selected
to enter
the choice set. For example van Soest
(1995) chooses (non probabilistically) a set of fixed points identical
for
every individual. This is by far the most widely adopted method. By
contrast,
Aaberge et al. (1995) adopt a sampling procedure suggested by McFadden
(1978)
and also assume that the choice set may differ across the households. A
second
issue concerns the availability of the alternatives. Most authors
assume all
the values of hours-of-work within some range [0, H] are equally
available. At
the other extreme, some authors assume only two or three alternatives
(e.g.
non-participation, part-time and full-time) are available for everyone.
Aaberge
et al. (1995) assume instead
that not all the hour opportunities are equally available to everyone;
they
specify a probability density function of opportunities for each
individual and
the discrete choice set used in the estimation is built by sampling
from that
individual-specific density function. In this paper we explore by
simulation
the implications of -
the procedure
used to build the choice set (fixed alternatives vs sampled
alternatives) -
accounting or
not accounting for a different availability of alternatives. The
way the choice
set is represented seems to have little impact on the fitting of
observed
values, but a more significant and important impact on the
out-of-sample
prediction performance.
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Comovements in International Stock Markets Claudio Morana and Andrea Beltratti In the paper monthly realized moments for stock
market returns for the US, the UK, Germany and Japan are employed to
assess the linkages hold-ing across moments and markets over the period
1973-2004. In the light of the theoretical framework proposed in the
paper, the results point to a progressive integration of the four stock
markets, leading to increasing comovements in prices, returns,
volatility and correlation. Evidence of a positive and non spurious
linkage between volatility and correlation, and a trend increase in
correlation coe fficients over time, is also found. All the above
mentioned linkages seem to be particularly strong for the US and
Europe, while the persistent stagnation of the economy and the weak
fun-damentals over the 1990s may have been the cause of the more
idiosyncratic behavior of the Japanese stock market.
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The Separations of powers, the rule of law and economic performance Suri Ratnapala Markets work best when the rules of the
game are
stable, property rights are secure and contracts are observed. These
conditions
are promoted by the rule of law in the classical liberal sense of the
supremacy
of general laws over public and private authority. Devices such as
mixed
government and the separation of powers are believed to be conducive to
the
rule of law. However, the degree of formal separation of powers in a
constitution does not always co-relate to rule of law conditions and
hence to
economic performance. Hence the speculation that the separation of
powers is
not a necessary condition to the rule of law. The paper argues against
such a
conclusion by developing an account of the separation of powers that
focuses on
its methodological thesis in addition to its better known thesis of the
diffusion of power.
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A note on stochastic survival probabilities and their calibration Elisa Luciano and Elena Vigna In this note we use doubly stochastic processes (or Cox processes) in order to model the evolution of the stochastic force of mortality of an individual aged x. These processes have been widely used in the credit risk literature in modelling the default arrival, and in this context have proved to be quite flexible and useful. We investigate the applicability of these processes in describing the individual's mortality, and provide a calibration to the Italian case. Results from the calibration are twofold. Firstly, the stochastic intensities seem to better capture the development of medicine and long term care which is under our daily observation. Secondly, when pricing insurance products such as life annuities, we observe a remarkable premium increase, although the expected residual lifetime is essentially unchanged. |
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Credit risk in pure jump structural models Filippo Fiorani, Jaap
Spreeuw and Elisa
Luciano Structural models of credit risk are known to present vanishing spreads at very short maturities. This shortcoming, which is due to the diffusive behavior assumed for asset values, can be circumvented by considering discontinuities of the jump type in their evolution over time. In particular, assuming a pure jump process. Moreover, when applied to market data diffusion-based structural models tend to produce too low spreads, even over longer horizons. In this paper we show that a jump process of the Variance-Gamma type for the asset value can also circumvent this practical shortcoming. We calibrate a terminal-default jump structural model to single-name data for the CDX NA IG and CDX NA HY components. We show that the VG model provides not only smaller errors, but also a better qualitative fit than other diffusive structural models. Indeed, it avoids both the spread underprediction of the classical Merton model and the excessive overpredictions of other well known diffusive models, as recently explored by Eom, Helwege, Huang (2004) or Demchuk and Gibson (2005). |
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Law, Economics and the Institutional Approach to Development and Transition: towards an Evolutionary perspective Enrico Colombatto The principles
underlying
evolutionary psychology suggest an approach to Law and Economics that
tends to
reject top-down policy making and encourages a bottom-up stance,
whereby rules
lead to behavioral routines that are consistent with individuals’
shared
psychological patterns.
The view proposed here is fruitful from a methodological perspective, in that it allows a new classification of societies, new insight on their prospects for economic growth, an innovative appreciation of the chances for successful transition in areas that have undergone substantial political transformation. Download |
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Extremism, Suicide Terror, and Authoritarism Ronald Wintrobe This paper
studies extremist behaviour, and
its connection to authoritarianism. I divide extremists into two
groups,
leaders, who demand extremist acts such as assassinations, suicide terror or other forms of political violence
from followers, who supply them. I assume that both the leaders of
extremist
groups and their followers are rational. The paper looks at three
examples:
Communism, Nationalism and Islamic Fundamentalism.
I show that leaders with extreme ideologies also tend to
adopt
violent methods when there is an indivisibility between the
intermediate goal
of the group and its ultimate goal. Turning
to followers, the most important innovation of the
paper is a
simple model which explains how it is possible for a person to
rationally
commit suicide to further the goals of a group.
The most important policy implications of the paper are, firstly, that one should look at the goals of extremist group in order to understand their actions. If one can un- bundle the goal or make the indivisible divisible, then there may be ways to provide these goals in a way which satisfies some of the potential supporters of the group and thus dries up support for the grander ambitions of the leaders of extremist groups. Secondly, the provision of programs which foster social cohesion tends to dry up an important motive for extremist activity: the desire for solidarity. Thirdly, policy towards terrorists should should combine the use of “carrot” and “stick”. Finally, I argue that authoritarian regimes rather than democracies or totalitarian regimes are the most likely sources of suicide terror. So democracy is indeed part of the solution to the problem of suicide terrorism. Download |
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Biological
Globalization:the other Grain Invasion
Alan L. Olmstead and Paul
W. Rhode Contemporary
accounts of the history of globalization place the grain
trade in a leading role. Narrowing price
gaps for wheat in world markets serve as the key indicator of
increasing market
integration. And the chief example of
an early policy backlash is the rising protectionism of European
importers in
response to the “Great Grain Invasion” of New World grain in the late
nineteenth century. These accounts focus on the important role of
falling
transportation cost, but neglect other crucial biological innovations
that
allowed expanding the wheat cultivation in the new lands, what we call
the
“other grain invasion.” This paper documents that over the 1866-1930
the
average distance of world wheat production from the core consumer
markets
doubled, as the wheat frontier moved on much harsher (colder and more
arid)
climates. Examining the detailed
histories of major producers on the periphery, we show that this move
involved,
and indeed required extensive experimentation by farmers and crop
scientists to
find new suitable cultivars that could thrive in the new environments
and
survive the evolving pest and disease threats. Flows
of germplasm and knowledge about breeding occurred
not only from
center to periphery, but also and importantly within the periphery and
from the
periphery to the center as an increasing integrated global community of
crop
scientists emerged over the late nineteenth and early twentieth
centuries. Finally, we speculate about why
in some
regions pioneering plant breeders are heralded as national heroes
whereas in
others they are sadly under-appreciated. |
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A Multivariate
Time-Changed Lévy Model for Financial Applications Patrizia Semeraro The purpose of this paper is to define a bivariate L´evy process by subordination of a Brownian motion. In particular we investigate a generalization of the bivariate Variance Gamma process proposed in Luciano and Schoutens [8] as a price process. Our main contribution here is to introduce a bivariate subordinator with correlated Gamma margins. We characterize the process and study its dependence structure. At the end wealso propose an exponential Lévy price model based on our process. |
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Workers on the Border between Employment and Self-employment
Ulrike Muehlberger and
Silvia Pasqua
The
number of workers on the border between self-employment and employment
strongly
increased across Europe over the last decade. This paper investigates
whether
and in what respect these workers differ from employees and
self-employed and
analyses whether these work relationships are a stepping stone to more
stable
employment in the short-run using Italian data. Depending on the data
source
the “para-subordinates” represent between 1.8% and 5.3% of the Italian
labour
force. Since most of them work only for one company and are strongly
integrated
into the firm of the contract partner, we argue that labour and social
security
law discriminates against these workers who are in fact very close to
employees.
We find that they are not low qualified workers, but young, highly
educated
professionals. At the same time these contracts are not a port of entry
into
the labour market nor do we find that they are a vehicle to more stable
jobs.
However, they are a possibility for women to work part-time.
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Asymptotic Distribution Theory of Empirical Rank-dependent measures of Inequity
Rolf Aaberge
A major
aim of most income distribution studies is to make
comparisons of income inequality across time for a given country and/or
compare
and rank different countries according to the level of income
inequality.
However, most of these studies lack information on sampling errors,
which makes
it difficult to judge the significance of the attained rankings.
The purpose of this paper is to derive the asymptotic properties of the empirical rank-dependent family of inequality measures. A favourable feature of this family of inequality measures is that it includes the Gini coefficients, and that any member of this family can be given an explicit and simple expression in terms of the Lorenz curve. By relying on a result of Doksum [14] it is easily demonstrated that the empirical Lorenz curve, regarded as a stochastic process, converges to a Gaussian process. Moreover, this result forms the basis of the derivation of the asymptotic properties of the empirical rank-dependent measures of inequality. Download |
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Bureaupreneurs in
China: we did it our way
Boudewijn R.A.
Bouckaert
This article explores the
different and
sometimes conflicting explanations of the success of the collective
enterprises
(town-village-enterprise) in China during the first phase of transition
(1979-1995). It is argued that explanations, relying on cultural
variables are
not sustainable and this for two reasons. First, the importance of the
collective enterprise is shrinking while the private sector is clearly
on the
rise. Second, other factors, referring to characteristics of the local
and
central political, administrative and economic environment, in which
the
Chinese enterprise has to (had to?) operate, provide for a sufficient
explanation of the peculiar structure of the Chinese collective
enterprises.
These enterprises are seen as the result of ‘bureau-preneurship’
because local
bureaucrats were integrated in their management in order to pre-empt
predatory
behaviour and to facilitate the relationships with the central
institutions.
The article contributes to the property rights’ theory of the firm as
it
analyses an empirically very important case in which firms with unclear
property rights and structures, apparently not conducive for
incentives, might
still be the most efficient option
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Wirtschftsethik und Unternehmensethik Zwei Kurzdarstellungen
Peter Koslowski
Economic ethics
describes the interaction of ethics and economics in explaining human
action
and in giving normative advice to ethically justifiable and efficient
choices
of action. As ethical economy, it analyses the ethical conditions of
coordination in markets and the economic conditions of ethically
legitimate
behaviour. Ethical economy is a theory of the ethics and culture of the
economy. Formal ethics is the pre-coordination of the economic
coordination of
the price system, material value ethics is the clarification of the
value
categories of goods and a general theory of value and good. Economic
ethics is
applied to the questions of incomplete contracts, professional ethics
and the
marginal ethics of an industry, and conflicts of interest.
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The Economy of Happiness
Peter Koslowski
Happiness
in philosophical ethics and utility or satisfaction in economics have
much in
common. The paper investigates the ethical economy of happiness as a
joint
topic of ethical and economic theory. It shows that limits of the
calculus of
utility maximization also apply to concepts of the greatest happiness
in
philosophy: It is impossible to distinguish the utility or happiness
maximizing
life strategy. The paper discusses the problem of inter-personal
comparisons of
happiness and satisfaction and the relevance of the theory of material
value
qualities developed by Max Scheler’s non-formal, material value ethics
for the
theory of goods, private and public. Ethics and economics are concerned
with
rules and duties. It is, however, also necessary to develop a theory of
goods
and values. Reflections are also made on the relationship between fact
and
value. Since there are side-effects of facts or experiences on our
values, the
naturalist fallacy of deriving value statements from experience seems
to be
less a fallacy than is usually assumed since Hume.
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Sampling the Dirichlet Mixture Model with Slices
Stephen G. Walker
We provide a
new approach to the sampling of the well
known mixture of Dirichlet process model. Recent attention has focused
on retention of the random distribution function in the model, but
sampling algorithms have then suffered from the countably infinite
representation these distributions have. The key to the algorithm
detailed in this paper, which also keeps the random distribution
functions, is the introduction of a latent variable which allows a
finite number, which is known, of objects to be sampled within each
iteration of a Gibbs sampler.
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A Flaming-Viot Process and Bayesian non Parametric
Theodoros Nicoleris,
Spyridon J. Hatjispyros and Stephen G. Walker
This
paper
provides a construction of a Fleming-Viot
measure valued diffusion process, for which the transition function is
known, by extending recent ideas of Gibbs sampler based Markov
processes. In particular, we concentrate on the Chapman-Kolmogorov
consistency conditions which allows a simple derivation of such a
Fleming-Viot process, once a key, and apparently new combinatorial
result for P´olya-urn sequences has been established.
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Conceptual Issues for the Comparative Study of Agricultural Development
Alan L. Olmstead, Paul W.
Rhode
DownloadThis paper begins by addressing the central questions
underlying the
country-specific essays in this volume: what was the relationship
between
agricultural development and the development of other sectors? Did agricultural growth support or compete
with industrial development? And, was
an agricultural revolution a necessary condition for an industrial
revolution? We also ask how the growth
of the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors during the great
transformation of the European economies compared with the relative
growth of
these two sectors in later developing Asian economies.
We next draw on Theodore Schultz’s insights
to help frame the comparative study of European development. In addition, we note the shortcomings of the
“New Growth Theory” as a tool for historical analysis and explore some
of the
conceptual pitfalls associated with the use of induced innovation and
threshold
models—paradigms commonly employed to explain the diffusion of
technologies and
cropping systems. A better
understanding of these two models, and of the broader global
experience,
suggest a reassessment of important issues in European agricultural
development.
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Why Foreign Aid Fails
Miroslav Prokopijevic
DownloadThe
main point of this paper is that foreign aid fails because the
structure of its incentives resembles that of central planning. Aid is
not only
ineffective, it is arguably counterproductive. Contrary to business
firms that
are paid by those they are supposed to serve (customers), aid agencies
are paid
by tax payers of developed countries and not by those they serve. This
inverse
structure of incentives breaks the stream of pressure that exists on
the
commercial market. It also creates larger loopholes in the
principle-agent
relationship on each point along the chain of aid delivery. Both
factors
enhance corruption, moral hazard and negative selection. Instead of
promoting
development, aid extends the life of bad institutions and those in
power.
Proposals to reform foreign aid – like aid privatization and aid
conditionality
– do not change the existing structure of the incentives in aid
delivery, and
their implementation may just slightly improve aid efficacy. Larger
improvement
is not possible. For that reason, foreign aid will continue to be a
waste of
resources, probably serving some objectives different to those that are
usually
mentioned, like recipient’s development, poverty reduction and pain
relief. |
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The Economic Effects
of Competition Policy
Stefan Voigt
DownloadThis paper
introduces a number of indicators on various aspects of competition
laws and competition agencies in order to make competition policies
comparable. It contains an indicator concerned with the objectives and
the instruments of competition laws, a second indicator evaluating to
what degree an economic – as opposed to a legal – approach to
competition policy has been chosen. Based on the assumption that it is
not the content of the law alone but also the structures erected in
order to implement the law, it further presents an indicator reflecting
the formal independence of competition agencies and a fourth one
reflecting their factual independence. These four indicators are used
to estimate the effects of competition policies on economic growth. It
turns out that all four variables contribute to explaining differences
in total factor productivity. Yet, their impact is not particularly
robust to the inclusion of indicators for the general quality of
institutions. |
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The Anatomy of Market Power in Electricity Markets with Hydropower as Dominating Technology
Finn R. Førsund
DownloadThe problem of optimal management of a water
reservoir by a hydropower producer is necessarily a dynamic one since
water can
be transferred between periods. A hydropower producer being a
monopolist cannot
reduce output in the classical way without spilling water. He will
follow a
strategy of setting marginal revenues equal between time periods and
thus shift
water from relatively inelastic periods to relatively elastic ones. If
the
monopolist has thermal capacity the strategy is the same, but the
utilization
of thermal capacity is reduced. If the monopolist has control over
external
trade import is reduced and export increased compared with the social
solution.
Technical constraints of limited reservoir and interconnector capacity
and a
competitive fringe may reduce markedly the consequences of exercising
market
power. |
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Lenin and the Currency
Competition
Nikolay Nenovsky
DownloadInstitutional competition stirs the interest of economists following a certain cyclical pattern. In this context, it is very interesting to look back at the experience of Lenin and the Bolsheviks of adopting monetary competition to stabilize their political and economic power after the crash of the war communism (and the attempts to annihilate money). The currency competition lasts less than two years and ends up with establishing the chervonetz as the only monetary unit. As a whole, this can be considered a successful economic experience. Nevertheless, the main conditions for effective institutional competition were not met – the two currencies were unequally positioned and, what is more, the institutional complementarity principle was not present. Other basic market institutions were lacking or much diminished in functions – mostly the property rights, the principle of free price setting as well as competition in the political and ideological sphere. In general, the NEP model is utterly controversial and its market structure is to a great extent false. This is what actually doomed monetary stability afterwards and left no room for money competition to spread its wings. Despite all these shortcomings, even in its reduced form, the monetary competition, gives a number of positive, though only temporary, results. This reveals the presence of purely technological characteristics of currency competition related to the behavior of money users. In part one we remind briefly of the chronology of events in the first years of the Bolshevik’s regime; part two shows the dynamics of currency competition between the sovznak and the chervonetz, and in the last part we attempt to draw some theoretical observations related to the necessary conditions for a successful institutional competition. |
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Business Ethics in Globalized Financial Markets
Peter Koslowski
DownloadGlobalization
extends the space of the things that are simultaneous for
the human. This applies particularly to the decision-making in
financial
markets. The global market for capital is one of the main causes for
globalization. How is this process of globalization to be judged from
the point
of view of business ethics? |
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Un'Analisi Economica della Partecipazione ai Referendum Abrogativi
Roberto Ricciuti
DownloadIn
questo lavoro viene analizzata
la partecipazione dei cittadini ai
referendum abrogativi con particolare riferimento a quattro possibili
determinati: caratteristiche dei quesiti (distributivi o di
efficienza), numero
di referendum votati contemporaneamente, mese del voto e posizione dei
partiti.
La decisione di votare o di astenersi è molto importante in quanto la
Costituzione prevede il quorum del 50% più uno degli aventi diritto al
voto per
la validità del referendum. I risultati mostrano che i referendum
distributivi
hanno una partecipazione al voto maggiore di quella dei referendum di
efficienza, maggiore è la percentuale di elettori che si riconoscono
nei
partiti che sostengono l’astensione, minore è la percentuale di
votanti.
Inoltre i referendum votati in giugno presentano una minore
partecipazione. Il numero
di referendum
votati contemporaneamente non ha effetti sulla percentuale di votanti fino
ad un numero
di cinque. A
partire da questa analisi si discutono alcune proposte di riforma.
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International Stock Markets Comovements: the Role of Economic and Financial Integration
Claudio Morana
Download
In this paper the contributions of
economic and financial integration to international stock markets
comovements are investigated by means of a large scale macroeconometric
model, set in the factor vector autoregressive framework (FVAR). The
findings point to a key role of both economic and financial integration
in determining stock markets comovements among the G-7 countries. While
the former exercises its effects through the common response to global
economic shocks, the latter operates through financial shocks
spillovers, particularly at the regional level.
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Structural Econometric Approach to Bidding in the Main refinancing Operations of the Eurosystem
Nuno Cassola, Christian
Ewerhart and Claudio Morana
Download
This paper contributes to the existing
literature on central bank repo auctions. It is based on a structural
econometric approach, whereby the primitives of bidding behavior
(individual bid schedules and bid-shading components) are directly
estimated. With the estimated parameters we calibrate a theoretical
model in order to illustrate some comparative static results. This
exercise sheds light on the debate about the reversed winner's curse
found in the empirical literature on ECB auctions by showing that it
may be related to an identification problem. Overall the results
suggest that strategic and optimal behavior is prevalent in ECB
tenders. We find evidence of a statistically significant bid-shading
component, even though the number of bidders is very large. Bid-shading
increases with liquidity uncertainty and decreases with the number of
participants and with price uncertainty. We argue that a sufficient
condition for the latter effect to appear in the data is that the
residual supply facing an individual bidder does not change much
ex-post when very short-term market rates increase.
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The End of the Japanese Stagnation: an Assessment of the Policy Solutions
Claudio Morana
Download
After more than a decade of stagnant
growth, the Japanese economy is showing signs of full recovery, with
deflation also having come to an end. Since the mid 1990s both supply
side and demand side policy solutions to the Japanese stagnation have
been suggested. By means of a Factor Vector Autoregressive Model, the
paper aims to assess whether the real depreciation of the yen and the
quantitative easying implemented by the Bank of Japan have contributed
to the recovery of the Japanese economy and to halt deflationary
dynamics. The results of the paper point to the effectiveness of these
latter policies, as well as to the role exercised by domestic
productivity improvements and the expansion of world economic activity.
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Why is the World Short of Democracy?
Vani K. Borooah, Martin
Paldam
Download This study
first uses a set of graphs and
tables to present the pattern of democracy in the world, using the
Gastil
Index. Then a statistical analysis is conducted by two techniques:
Regression
techniques are used to analyze the effect on democracy of a handful of
variables. It shows that poverty, Communism and the Muslim culture are
the main
barriers to democracy. It then uses Bayesian probability methods to
make
explicit the concept of the “risk” of countries being undemocratic. The
analysis focuses on the dynamics of the income effect and of the
democratic
deficit of the Muslim countries to see if it is stationary or
transitory. It is
unstable, so it may be transitory, but it has been rising.
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Distributions of Functionals of the two Parameter Poisson-Dirichlet Process Lancelot F. James, Antonio Lijoi and Igor Prünster The present paper
provides exact expressions for the probability distribution of linear
functionals of the two–parameter Poisson–Dirichlet process.
Distributional results that follow from the application of an inversion
formula for a (generalized) Cauchy–Stieltjes transform are achieved.
Moreover, several interesting integral identities are obtained by
exploiting a correspondence between the mean functional of a
Poisson–Dirichlet process and the mean functional of a suitable
Dirichlet process. Finally, some distributional characterizations in
terms of mixture representations are illustrated. Our formulae are
relevant to occupation time phenomena connected with Brownian motion
and more general Bessel processes, as well as to models arising in
Bayesian nonparametric |
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Net Inflows and Time-Varying Alphas: The Case of Hedge Funds
Andrea
Beltratti, Claudio Morana
Download The growth
in the size of the hedge funds industry has led some in-vestors to
worry about a decline in alphas, associated with reduced ar-bitrage
opportunities in international financial markets. We introduce a
multivariate components model for returns and net relative inflows into
hedge funds, accounting for time-varying market premia. We estimate
alpha as an unobserved component variable of the econometric model. We
then assess whether several categories of hedge funds do produce extra
profits and whether the flows of funds into the industry are dynamically related to returns. Our results point to a positive correlation between past returns and future flows, while the evidence concerning the linkage between past flows and future returns is mixed. However, we do not find any structural decline in alpha for most hedge fund categories.
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Value and Exchange in Law and Economics: Buchanan versus Posner
Alain Marciano
Download Meir
Kohn’s Exchange and Value claims that
economics can be characterised around two opposed paradigms, the
exchange and
the value paradigms. In this paper, we apply this dichotomy to
characterise the
analyses proposed by economists in the field known as “law and
economics”. We
compare and contrasts the perspectives proposed by two prominent
scholars –
James Buchanan and Richard Posner – and argue that they respectively
represent
the exchange and the value paradigm in law and economics. More
precisely, we
show that Buchanan sticks to a definition of economics based on the
exchange
paradigm, and this leads him to define law and economics in a rather
specific,
different, narrower than Posner’s way to define law and economics – a
definition that corresponds to a conception of economics based on the
value
paradigm.
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The Formation of Firms and the Prior Experience of New Entrepreneurs
Enrico Colombatto, Arie
Melnik
Download We use a simple model to
analyze the founding stage of new firms. Our goal is to characterize
the
directional causality between the expected rewards from
entrepreneurship and
the length of prior labor market experience that entrepreneurs possess.
We test
predictions about the timing of the formation of new firms on a sample
of
Italian entrepreneurs who founded new firms in the period 1992-2004. We
obtain
three main results. First, the timing of the foundation of new firms is
determined primarily by the expectation of higher income and not so
much by the
perception of risk. Second, earlier experience of entrepreneurs in full
time
employment has a positive impact on the size of newly founded firms.
Third,
when we separate founders who work alone from founders who work with
family
partners, we find that the latter establish and control larger firms.
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Linear and Quadratic Functionals of RandomHazard rates: an Asymptotic Analysis Giovanni Peccati and Igor
Prünster A
popular Bayesian
nonparametric approach to survival analysis consists in modeling hazard
rates as kernel mixtures driven by a completely random measure. In this
paper we derive asymptotic results for linear and quadratic functionals
of such random hazard rates. In particular, we prove central limit
theorems for the cumulative hazard function and for the path--second
moment and path--variance of the hazard rate. Our techniques are based
on recently established criteria for the weak convergence of single and
double stochastic integrals with respect to Poisson random measures. We
illustrate our results by considering specific models involving kernels
and random measures commonly exploited in practice.
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Exchange Rate and Inflation: France and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period
Kalina Dimitrova and Nikolay Nenovsky
DownloadThe objective of this
paper is twofold. First, to compare the model of financial
stabilization in the interwar period in France (a country in the
“core”) with that in Bulgaria (a peripheral country). Second, applying
modern econometric techniques (VAR models) we would like to “test
“whether the theory designating a dominant role of the exchange rate on
inflation (in comparison to that of money in circulation) holds and can
be empirically proved by the actual movement of the monetary variables
and the direction of their causality. Going back to the history of
stabilization in France and Bulgaria in the interwar period and
studying it through the theoretical ideas at the beginning of the XX
century would provide us not only with new elements in the analysis of
the present-day problems of monetary stabilizations but also add to the
arguments of the crucial significance of the exchange rate and monetary
rules for the efficiency and credibility of the monetary regime. |
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Monetary Convergence on the Road to EMU: Conceptual Issues for Eastern Europe
Nikolay Nenovsky
DownloadTraditional monetary and
economic convergence in accordance with the Optimal Currency Areas
model has a number of limitations. Above all, it fails to assess the
state of formal and informal monetary institutions. Adequate for an
industrial society, it does not address the change to a globalising
information society, being mainly quantitative, aggregated, and
generally mechanical. This removes it from reality, though keeping it
close to a quantitative presentation. It fails to take into account
invisible threats to convergence and East European country realities
involving informal monetary institutions and differences in
institutional development. Monetary regime efficiency is judged solely
by Maastricht criteria fulfilment. These limitations may be overcome in
two ways. The first is to take into account the institutional aspect of
money, enabling discussion of institutional monetary convergence. The
second way is to adopt institutional monetary competition, allowing at
least some institutional competition in EEC monetary regimes in the run
up to euro adoption and possibly allowing the euro to circulate in
parallel with national currencies. |
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On the Definition and Measurement of Chronic Poverty
Rolf Aaberge, Magne
Mogstad
Download
As an alternative to the conventional methods for measuring chronic poverty, this paper proposes to use an interpersonal comparable measure of permanent income as a basis for defining and measuring chronic poverty. This approach accounts for the fact that individuals may undertake inter-period income transfers if it is to their advantage. Moreover, it allows for individual-specific interest rates on borrowing and saving as well as for the presence of liquidity constraints. Due to its general nature the proposed method proves useful for evaluating the theoretical basis of the standard methods for measuring chronic poverty. |
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Designing Optimal Taxes with a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply
Rolf Aaberge, Ugo
Colombino
Download
The purpose of this
paper is to present an exercise where we identify optimal income tax
rules
under the constraint of fixed tax revenue. To this end, we estimate a
microeconomic model with 78 parameters that capture heterogeneity in
consumption-leisure preferences for singles and couples as well as in
job
opportunities across individuals based on detailed Norwegian household
data for
1994. For any given tax rule, the estimated model can be used to
simulate the
choices made by single individuals and couples. Those choices are
therefore
generated by preferences and opportunities that vary across the
decision units.
Differently from what is common in the literature, we do not rely on a
priori
theoretical optimal taxation results, but instead we identify optimal
tax rules
– within a class of 6-parameter piece-wise linear rules - by
iteratively
running the model until a given social welfare function attains its
maximum
under the constraint of keeping constant the total net tax revenue. We
explore
a variety of social welfare functions with differing degree of
inequality
aversion and also two alternative social welfare principles, namely
equality of
outcome and equality of opportunity. All the social welfare functions
turn out
to imply an average tax rate lower than the current 1994 one. Moreover,
all the
optimal rules imply – with respect to the current rule – lower marginal
rates
on low and/or average income levels and higher marginal rates on
relatively
high income levels. These results are partially at odds with the tax
reforms
that took place in many countries during the last decades. While those
reforms
embodied the idea of lowering average tax rates, the way to implement
it has
typically consisted in reducing the top marginal rates. Our results
instead
suggest to lower average tax rates by reducing marginal rates on low
and
average income levels and increasing marginal rates on very high income
levels. |
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Environmentalism versus Constitutionalism: a Contest without Winners
Suri Ratnapala
Download
The New Zealand Resource Management Act imposes
a system for micro-managing the environment. The Act is typical of
current
state approaches to environmental protection that places heavy reliance
on
command and control systems in preference to market based systems. Such
laws
impact heavily on property rights and due process and generally
undermine the
rule of law by creating centres of arbitrary authority. They also
prevent the
harnessing of widely dispersed knowledge that is vital to the
determination of
the costs and benefits of conservation and the development of realistic
policy.
These measures have been justified on the basis of the ‘precautionary
principle’ and the concept of sustainable development and they are
supported by
claims of scientific consensus about major environmental issues such as
climate
change. The essay questions this consensus and argues that the
precautionary
principle and sustainable development are vacuous but dangerous
doctrines. The
apocalyptic and utopian visions of conservation are challenged and an
evolutionary conceptualisation of the environment is proposed. The
essay
discusses the importance of property rights and compensation for
takings as
means of advancing legitimate environmental goals and argues that the
New
Zealand Resource Management Act is a deeply flawed model that imposes
serious
economic and constitutional costs that ultimately will weaken society’s
capacity to achieve those goals. |
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Das Ende der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft
Peter Koslowski
Download
Das Leitbild der Wirtschafts-und Sozialordnung der
Bundesrepublik
Deutschland, die Soziale Markwirtschaft, wird durch die Idee des
sozialen
Ausgleichs von Einkommensunterschieden durch die progressive
Besteuerung, durch
die umlagefinanzierte Altersvorsorge, durch die Mitbestimmung der
Arbeitnehmer,
vor allem mit Hilfe der Gewerkschaften, in der Leitung der
Großunternehmen und
durch das Konsensmodell der Unternehmensfinanzierung, eine enge
Zusammenarbeit
von Banken und Management, bestimmt. Diese Prinzipien, die gemeinsam
das
Ordnungsgeflecht der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft bilden, geraten durch die
wirtschaftliche Entwiclung so unter Druck, daß sie nicht mehre greifen
und das Ende
der durch sie bestimmten Wirtschaftsordnung herbeiführen. Dies wird an
drei
Entwicklungen gezeigt: erstens an den Finanzierungsproblemen der
Rentenversicherung aufgrund der demografischen Entwicklung, zweitens an
der
Abwanderung von Rentnern in den internationalen Kapitalmarkt, die durch
die
Schwäche des deutschen Kapitalmarkts bedingt ist und durch
Pensionsfonds zu
beleben ist, und an der Notwendigkeit, den Markt für
Unternehmenskontrolle zu
etablieren, um durch die Übernahmedrohung zu einer Leistungssteigerung
des
Managements der deutschen Großunternehmen zu gelangen.
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Multivariate modelling of long memory processes with common components
Claudio Morana
Download
In the paper a new approach to the modelling of common
components in long memory processes is introduced. The approach is
based on a two-step procedure relying on Fourier transform methods
(firrst step) and principal components analysis (second step), which,
differently from previous contributions to the literature, allows the
modelling of large data sets, both in terms of temporal and
cross-sectional dimensions. Monte Carlo evidence, supporting the
two-step estimation procedure, is also provided, as well as an
empirical application to |
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International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach
Fabio C. Bagliano,
Claudio Morana
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In this paper international comovements among a set of key
real and nominal macroeconomic variables for the G-7 countries have
been investigated for the 1980-2005 period, using a Factor Vector
Autoregressive approach. We present evidence that comovements in
macroeconomic variables do not concern only real activity, but are an
important feature also of stock market returns, inflation rates,
interest rates and, to a smaller extent, monetary aggregates. Both
common sources of shocks and similar transmission mechanisms explain
international comovements, with the only exception of Japan, where the
idiosyncratic features seem to dominate. Finally, concerning the origin
of global shocks, evidence of both global supply-side and demand-side
disturbances is found. |