A Mathematical Theory of Evidence For G.L.S. Shakle

Guido Fioretti
Università di Firenze
ICER, Torino

Evidence Theory is a branch of mathematics that concerns the combination of empirical evidence in an individual’s mind in order to construct a coherent picture of reality. Designed to deal with unexpected empirical evidence suggesting new possibilities, evidence theory has a lot in common with Shackle’s idea of decision-making as a creative act. This essay investigates this connection in detail, pointing to the usefulness of evidence theory to formalise and extend Shackle’s decision theory.


Professor of Economics
Texas A&M University, College Station, and
Imadec University, Vienna
Senior Fellow
International Centre for Economic Research
Torino, Italy

ABSTRACT: Institutional restructuring in West Germany and Eastern Europe is a consequence of the failure of two major socialist experiments, National Socialism and Marxism-Leninism. The paper addresses a number of issues
such as: Why was the transition of West Germany in the 1950s more successful than the institutional restructuring of Eastern Europe in the 1990s? Why are the results of institutional changes within the former Soviet
Bloc different from one country to another? Why do we observe no tendency in former Marxist-Leninist states for more efficient institutions to replace less efficient ones?

The Biomedical Workforce in the US: An Example of Positive Feedbacks

Paula E. Stephan
Georgia State University, NBER and ICER1

This paper makes the case that the biomedical workforce in the United States is characterized by positive feedbacks. The paper begins by setting out background information on (1) the way in which research is structured in the biomedical sciences; (2) the reward structure among biomedical researchers; and (3) the funding enterprise for biomedical sciences.

Exchange Control in Italy and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period: History and Perspectives

Nikolay Nenovsky
Bulgarian National Bank, University of Orléans, ICER
Giovanni Pavanelli
Department of Economics “G. Prato”, University of Torino
Kalina Dimitrova
Bulgarian National Bank, Sveti Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, ICER

Abstract: This paper analyses exchange rate control measures adopted in Italy and Bulgaria during the interwar period. The first two sections provide a detailed account of the institutional and economic framework in which these measures were enforced and interpret them utilizing statistical data. In the third section it suggests a theoretical interpretation of exchange control and clearing agreements stressing that these policies were a serious interference in market mechanisms.

Lenin and the currency competition Reflections on the NEP experience (1922-1924)

Nikolay Nenovsky

Bulgarian National Bank and ICER

Summary: Institutional competition stirs the interest of economists following a certain cyclical pattern. In this context, it is very interesting to look back at the experience of Lenin and the Bolsheviks of adopting monetary competition to stabilize their political and economic power after the crash of the war communism (and the attempts to annihilate money). The currency competition lasts less than two years and ends up with establishing the chervonetz as the only monetary unit. As a whole, this can be considered a successful economic experience.

Moral Hazard: cos’è?

La definizione di Moral Hazard è sicuramente un modo per capire meglio il mondo del broker finanziario. Per i meno esperti, il broker finanziario è una figura professionale che compra e vende l’asset migliore secondo il mercato in base all’indicazione del proprio cliente. Sarà lui a giocare in borsa le vostre finanze: ovviamente ha una conoscenza del mercato finanziario e di tutte quelle tecniche che si usano in borsa. Sono tante le funzionalità di un broker, che vi aiuterà a capire meglio come investire con il minor rischio possibile il vostro capitale.

Collateralized Debt Obligation: definizione e rischi

Una Collateralized Debt Obligation (definita anche CDO) rappresenta praticamente un’obbligazione coperta da un debito, con quest’ultimo che esercita il ruolo di garanzia collaterale. Una CDO è composta da centinaia o decine di obbligazioni ABS, che a loro volta sono garantite da un grande numero di debiti di tipo individuale. I Collateralized Debt Obligation vengono ritenuti una delle cause primarie che hanno portato alla crisi dei titoli subprime.